Will 3 Fed Rate Cut Probability 2025 Come True? CPI Data Effect

3 Fed Rate Cut Probability Hit ATH After CPI Data Release Today

The US CPI data release today has shaked the crypto market. Inflation came in cooler than expected at 3.0% instead of 3.1%, which means prices are rising slower than what experts thought. 

What’s more interesting is that, this has made 3 Fed Rate Cut Probability in 2025 reach its all time high.

Heather Long , Chief Economist and analyst, said this is the first time inflation stayed around 3% since January. Prices went up mostly because of gas and food, and tariffs added more pressure. Even then, the report was called “cooler than expected.”

The monthly price increase was just 0.2%, showing inflation is slowing down. Because of this, people now think the Federal Reserve might start cutting rates soon.

Kalshi Data Shows 85% Odds of 3 Fed Rate Cuts in 2025

The next Federal Reserve meeting on October 28–29 will be very important. With US CPI data cooling and fewer new jobs being added, the committee is under pressure to support the economy instead of keeping rates high.

As per Fed rate cut latest news, The Kalshi prediction market, which tracks what traders expect, showed that odds of 3 Fed rate cut probability surged to 85% in 2025 after today’s CPI Data news surfaced. That means most people believe the federal reserve will cut interest rates three times next year to help the economy.

Since inflation looks stable and tariffs and fuel prices are still high, the policy rate decrease has become one of the biggest stories in finance right now.

Crypto Market Reacts: Fear and Greed Index Falls to 30

Even though Wall Street liked today’s CPI data release, the market is still nervous. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to 30 (“Fear”), which shows traders are still careful and not ready to take big risks.

Only $25 million in short trades got closed — a small number that shows people didn’t bet much before the data came out. With US–China trade deal talks, tariff discussions, and the 3 Fed rate cut news surrounding the industry, traders are waiting for more clarity.

Also, the White House said there may be no inflation report next month, which makes investors even more uncertain. So, the October Federal reserve meeting is now more important than ever.

Bitcoin and Ethereum saw a short bounce around October 23, but prices fell again soon after. Experts say this shows how closely cryptocurrency now follows global economic news.

Note: As per my analysis being a crypto expert, when the rate cut probability rises, prices usually go up because it means cheaper money and more liquidity. But with trade tensions and low trading volume, people are being careful.

Many investors are now asking — why crypto market is down today even though the Fed might cut rates next year?

Conclusion 2025 Outlook: Will Monetary Easing Revive Risk Assets?

Now that inflation is cooling and the 3 Fed Rate Cut Probability is at record highs, everyone wants to know if the committee will finally confirm it.
If they agree to start decreasing value, it could bring new energy to stocks and cryptocurrencies, making markets rise again.

But if they waited longer, we could see more ups and downs. Rising fuel prices, tariffs, and weak jobs data are still major concerns.

Disclaimer: This article is for general information only and not financial advice. Always DYOR before investing in the crypto market.