As the next US presidential election approaches in less than 16 months, there is a growing probability of a recession in 2024, reaching levels not seen in decades. Historical analysis based on the 10-year/3-month term spread suggests this concerning trend, according to finance monitoring platform Game of Trades.
However, amidst these uncertain economic prospects, Bitcoin enthusiasts find solace in the cryptocurrency's past behavior. A notable cryptocurrency market analyst, Trader Tardigrade, points out that Bitcoin has consistently begun a bull run approximately 22 months before the US presidential election, again entering the pre-run phase. This observation is based on the relative strength indicator (RSI), which recently emerged from the zero line on the two-week chart, a promising sign of the beginning of a bull market. This pattern resembles Bitcoin's trend in 2016, as highlighted by the expert in previous macroeconomic chart analysis.
Moreover, Trader Tardigrade predicts that Bitcoin's upward momentum will continue even after the election, leading to a new all-time high (ATH). This pattern has previously occurred in 2012 when Barack Obama secured the presidency, in 2016 following Donald Trump's victory, and again in 2020 with Joe Biden becoming the current US president.
Bitcoin is currently valued at $30,484, with a slight decline of 0.79% over the day and a 2.11% drop in the past week. However, it has still managed to maintain a 16.33% gain over the last month. Considering these factors, Bitcoin's flagship decentralized finance (DeFi) asset holds a strong chance of increasing its value, particularly if the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) grants approval for the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
The intersection of politics, economics, and cryptocurrency always makes for an intriguing landscape. While the prospect of a recession can dampen investor sentiment, Bitcoin's historical resilience and its potential as a safe haven asset provide a glimmer of hope for enthusiasts. However, it's important to remember that market dynamics can be influenced by various factors, and investing in cryptocurrency carries inherent risks. As the US presidential election draws nearer, the crypto community will keenly observe whether Bitcoin can defy the odds once again and reach new heights.
