Even if Bitcoin rose 40% in January, experienced Bitcoin market participants are not ready to benefit.
A local low of $22,286 helped the bulls avoid a major loss over the weekend.
United States shares opened higher on January 23 as Bitcoin $23,056 refused to give up gains.
Over the weekend, the pair was able to maintain its trading range, and a local low of $22,286 helped the bulls from suffering a severe loss. Risk assets continued to trade in an upbeat manner on the day, with the S&P 500 rising 1.3% and the Nasdaq Composite Index rising 2%.
After weeks of excellent returns, gold also disappointed many who were anticipating for a regression. Analyst Alisdair McLeod attributed this to the basic laws of supply and demand. He made a comment about the daily XAU/USD chart and said that attempts to push back gold keep failing. As a result, the already underperforming U.S. dollar index (DXY) made only a slight recovery at the outset before turning bearish again and currently looping 102.
Analysts of Bitcoin were divided on whether the recent rise after more than a year of a bear market actually signified a trend change.
Both indications that the bull market is about to begin and indications that the current surge is a bear market are present. As Keith Alan, co-founder of on-chain data resource Material Indicators, put it, "Until I receive confirmations, I'm focusing on the data that matters so I'll know whether a potential breakout is a justifiable move or has a higher possibility of being a fakeout." Alan went on to say that in order to put an end to bears, one macro trigger in particular still needed to be activated.
The upward trend in unemployment, which has historically indicated bottoms, is still absent, according to the economic data we have so far seen, he noted.
Yes, perhaps "this time is different," but in order for me to consider a breakout to have occurred, there must be full candles above the 200 Week MA. Alan was referring to the 200-week moving average for Bitcoin, a crucial trend line that the cryptocurrency has yet to retake after losing it as support in late 2017.
The impulse to take advantage of gains was another concern brought up by Bitcoin's 40% January increase. In the most recent issue of its weekly newsletter, The Week On-Chain, analytics company Glassnode observed that long-term investors remained typically steadfast in their choice to stay in the market – even after more than a year of losses.
The ability to sell some of their assets has incentivized short-term holders and miners, according to an analysis of cohort behaviour. In contrast, the supply held by long-term holders is increasing, which might be interpreted as a sign of strength and conviction among this generation, according to a portion of the report's conclusion.
Given how long-term holders affect the macro trend, keeping an eye on their spending will probably be an important tool to use in the coming weeks. Entities that store coins for more than 155 days are referred to as long-term holders.
