October Bleeds: Will Moonvember & Bullcember Boost Bitcoin Price?

Bitcoin Price Red in October; Turn Green in Moonvember & Bullcember?

As October comes to a close, the crypto community remains anxious about the Bitcoin price’s potential trajectory in November and December. With ‘Moonvember’ and ‘Bullecember’ historically bullish for BTC, there is a fresh wave of optimism across the market.

However, Bitcoin's red trajectory over the past month, a month typically considered bullish, has sparked uncertainty around the crypto's movement over the next two months. This article analyzes the cryptocurrency’s possible track in the remaining months of 2025.

A Bloody October: What's Next for BTC?

Bitcoin's seven-year winning streak in October has come to an end. According to Coinbase, Bitcoin fell nearly 7% in October, trading at $109,420. This marks the first time since 2018 that October failed to live up to its 'Uptober' reputation. After hitting an all-time high of $126,200 earlier in the month, Bitcoin's value plummeted, dropping over 14% to around $104,000 before stabilizing.

Adam McCarthy, senior researcher at Kaiko, stated,

"Cryptocurrencies started October at record highs along with gold and stocks, but when uncertainty hit for the first time this year many investors left Bitcoin. The plunge on the 10th showed that the range of this asset class is very narrow. (Among cryptocurrencies, the only ones worth investing in) are Bitcoin and Ethereum, but even these are assets that can fall 10% in 15∼20 minutes.”

Looking ahead, the crypto community remains cautious yet optimistic about the Bitcoin price's prospects in November and December. While market volatility and uncertainty persist, growing institutional interest and potential regulatory clarity could drive prices higher.

Moonvember and Bullcember Rally Possible?

Historically, November and December are favourable months for the Bitcoin price. November has been strong, boasting an average return of +37.8% and a median return of +8.87%. The data shows mostly positive returns, with standout years like 2013 (+453.9%) and 2020 (+42.9%), and only one recent negative return in 2021 (-7.12%).

December, however, is a little more confounding with an average performance of +8.42% and a median return of +1.69%. Sure, December has had some impressive performances like +47.8% in 2020 and +33.2% in 2013, but it has also seen losses like -18.9% in 2021 and -11.9% in 2023.

Based on independent historical data, a Moonvember and Bullcember rally is possible, but then again, the contradictory bloodbath of Uptober muddies the return outlook.

Bearish Pull on the Horizon?

Analyst Alex Wacy warned that BTC's repeated rejection from a key line could lead to a 70% crash, potentially sending the price down to $40,000. He cautioned that history seems to be repeating itself, with the chart showing a pattern of significant declines following rejections from this line. According to his projection, the asset could even dip to a severe low of $40,000.

Another prominent analyst, Ted, suggested that BTC is currently experiencing time-based capitulation. He noted that it needs to consolidate above $100,000 to avoid further decline. A weekly close below this level would confirm a downtrend, according to the analyst.