Pi Coin (PI) is facing a lot of pressure with one of the most anticipated token unlocks slated for April. On April 16, 7.1 million PI tokens valued at almost $4.34 million entered circulation. With the altcoin trading currently at about $0.61, over 80% off its all-time high, with the heightening concern of the market, this massive unlock of tokens begs the question: Was the crash triggered by this massive unlock, or is there more to the story?
Let us look into Pi Network, its current happenings, the reasons behind the liquidation, and what factors could provide price stability for the token in 2025.
Piscan.io indicates that greater than 203.62 million tokens would be unblocked in the next 30 days. This presents almost 4% of the total 5.13 billion locked PI supply. On average, 6.78 million tokens will be released daily, adding consistent downward pressure to the price due to added supply.
On-chain and market observers like Dr. Altcoin have signaled how this sudden jump in supply without a corresponding increase in demand is triggering a basic economic imbalance. Too many sellers, not enough buyers.
While the Coin has been mined by millions of individuals for nearly six years, it remains unavailable on top exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, or Kraken. Limited trading has been allowed on some Centralized Exchanges (CEX)-OKX and BitMart- but regulatory and Know Your Business (KYB) constraints limit Pi's accessibility in key markets such as the U.S., China, and Europe.
Weak investor confidence would further translate into a deficiency of liquidity and worsen the downside risk during unlock periods until more global and compliant listings for token are secured.
On the 4-hour chart, the token recently broke downwards from its ascending channel. At the moment, the token is trading quite below simpler moving averages such as the 20, 50, 100, and 200 SMA, which are trending downward. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 31.56 and is approaching oversold conditions, but still does not have any bullish confirmation at the moment.
Source: TradingView
As such, it shows that the bearish berate shall stay consolidated with few clear signs of a reversal, at least in the short term.
Given the technical weakness and the massive pressure of token unlocks, the Coin is quite likely to remain in the downtrend next few weeks. Here are the key levels to keep an eye on:
Bearish Case (More Likely)
Target Short Term: $0.45-$0.40
If selling intensifies and demand remains low, this zone could be tested as the next psychological and Fibonacci support area.
Bullish Relief Bounce (If Demand Kicks In)
Potential Bounce: $0.64-$0.70
But it would have a very low chance of sustaining upside unless Pi recaptures $0.71+ with significant volume and a clear catalyst.
While the outlook remains bearish, three catalysts could change the course:
1. Expansion of KYB-Approved Exchanges
The expansion of KYB-Approved CEXs, as well as increasing access to restricted regions like the U.S., China, or even the EU, would have expanded liquidity and brought new users.
2. Institutional Buying Activity
Big players like BANXA are reportedly eyeing large-scale purchases (up to 100 million coins). If confirmed, this could absorb excess supply and provide much-needed demand-side support.
3. Major Announcements from the Pi Core Team (PCT)
The Core Team has been mostly quiet, but ecosystem developments- mainnet migration, app launches, or partnerships- could raise investor sentiment and revive momentum.
Pivotal in the state of Coin is a turning point. Market indicators at this time, however, are bearish, while its future depends on the actual use, expanding its ecosystem, and having better access to liquidity.
In the meantime, brace for volatility as the 203 M+ unlock continues into May. For now, the big question is: What moves will the Core Team take?
Also read: PAWS Price Prediction: What Will Be the Listing Price on Launch?
Lokesh Gupta is a seasoned financial expert with 23 years of experience in Forex, Comex, NSE, MCX, NCDEX, and cryptocurrency markets. Investors have trusted his technical analysis skills so they may negotiate market swings and make wise investment selections. Lokesh merges his deep understanding of the market with his enthusiasm for teaching in his role as Content & Research Lead, producing informative pieces that give investors a leg up. In both conventional and cryptocurrency markets, he is a reliable adviser because of his strategic direction and ability to examine intricate market movements. Dedicated to study, market analysis, and investor education, Lokesh keeps abreast of the always-changing financial scene. His accurate and well-researched observations provide traders and investors with the tools they need to thrive in ever-changing market conditions.
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