Arthur Hayes Warning: Monad Tokenomics Could Push MON Price to 0

Arthur Hayes: Monad Weak Tech & Tokenomics Can’t Compete With SOL, ETH

Arthur Hayes has ignited debate in the crypto ecosystem by claiming Monad’s technology and tokenomics are fundamentally flawed, warning the token could struggle to sustain value without real adoption and stronger execution.

Key Takeaways:

• Hayes says Monad’s tech claims are overstated and fail to compete with Solana, Ethereum L2s, Aptos, or Sui.

• He calls Monad’s high-FDV, low-float tokenomics a “major red flag.”

• Market data shows declining confidence amid unlock pressure and limited developer traction.

Data Snapshot of Monad (as of latest update)

Price: $0.03574

Market Cap: $387.11M

FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation): $3.57B

Circulating Supply: 10.83B MON

Circulating % of total supply: 10.83% (10.83B of 100B total supply)

Source: CMC

Hayes’ Sharp Critique of Monad Token

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and a prominent macro commentator, has delivered one of the strongest criticisms yet toward MON, a high-performance Layer-1 positioned as an EVM-compatible chain. Speaking on the Altcoin Daily podcast, Hayes said the token's “weak technical foundation and broken tokenomics” could push the token “straight to zero” if problems remain unaddressed.

He also noted that his stance shifted from early optimism to bearishness after re-evaluating the project’s design, market structure, and token performance.

Source: Wu Blockchain X

“Not on Solana’s Level” — Tech Claims Challenged

Hayes argues that MON does not currently meet the performance levels suggested during its promotional push. While it markets itself as a high-throughput chain with full EVM compatibility, Hayes claims its real-world execution and ecosystem traction remain limited.

He asserts MON is “not remotely close to Solana” in throughput, reliability, or developer activity. According to Hayes, existing alternatives already dominate key categories:

• Solana — high-speed execution and growing user base

• Ethereum L2s — strong security and deep liquidity

• Aptos & Sui — advanced parallel execution models

With the modular and rollup ecosystems expanding rapidly, Hayes believes new L1s must clearly differentiate — and says the project “hasn’t done that yet.”

High FDV, Low Float: Hayes’ Biggest Concern

• Hayes emphasizes that Monad tokenomics are a greater risk than its technology. 

• He criticizes the project’s high fully diluted valuation (FDV) combined with a low circulating supply, calling it a “VC-favored structure” that creates artificial scarcity. Such models often lead to heavy sell pressure as tokens unlock over months or years. 

• According to BitMEX Founder, the token's early trading patterns already reflect weakening confidence, with sharp post-launch declines and limited organic demand.

• He warns this model frequently ends with “retail holding exposure while insiders distribute,” though he notes outcomes depend on real network traction.

Source: YouTube

From Bullish to Bearish — Why Arthur Flipped

Hayes admitted he initially bought the token near its early peak, believing the project could compete in the next L1 cycle. However, he changed his mind after seeing price movement, liquidity patterns, and ecological stagnation. He now forecasts that the token might not do well unless its technology and developer environment gain significant strength.

The Implication of this to the L1 Market.

The criticism points to a more general change in investor attitude. Low-utility L1 chains with high-FDV have gained increased scrutiny than before, especially with the emergence of Ethereum rollups and high-performance chains such as Solana.

The future of MON is relying on:

• Real developer adoption

• Sustainable token unlock management

• Demonstrating its performance assertions with quantifiable information.

Conclusion

The remarks made by BitMEX Founder highlighted the technology and token model and cast serious doubts on its sustainability in the long run. To restore confidence in the market, the project should demonstrate actual utility. Check the Monad price prediction for upcoming years.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.