Will This September Be Crypto Market's Worst Nightmare?

Crypto Market To See High Volatility This September

As September approaches, the crypto market is bracing for the worst. This “Redtember,” with its historical tendency to bleed red, sparks anxiety among investors and traders as its ominous shadow once again falls across the digital asset space.

Now, all eyes are on the potential performance crypto market to see if this year will be different. With new dynamics and catalysts at play, one thing is certain - September's performance will set the tone for the rest of the year.

September Dilemma to Come?

Historically, September has been the most unfavorable month for the crypto market. With the month just around the corner, analysts and industry experts are directing the community’s attention to the imminent bearish trend.

As per a recent X post by KookCapitaLLC, “September is historically one of the worst months.” As per the monthly returns analysis, Sept has frequently experienced negative returns across various years, with the average return for the month being -3.77% and the median return being -4.35%.

Notably, this period experienced negative returns in 2025, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2014, and 2013, with only a few instances of positive gains, such as in 2024, 2023, 2016, and 2015. This observed pattern of generally lower or negative returns in Sept aligns with the historical anomaly known as the September Effect, where returns tend to be weaker compared to other months of the year.

However, this Redtember phenomenon has a silver lining. The period is often followed by a “Greentober” rebound, where October has consistently delivered +18.5% average returns.

Will Bitcoin Fall?

Considering September’s usual negative trend in the crypto market, Bitcoin is poised to experience a massive fall. Ahead of the arrival of Redtember, the volatility has intensified. Bitcoin's dominance dips to 57.4%, driven by increased liquidity and institutional demand for high-risk assets.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan stated,

“Since bitcoin started trading in 2010, the asset has fallen 4.5% on average during Sept. That’s by far the worst month, and one of only two months with a negative average return.”

Adding fuel to the bearish sentiment, September's token unlocks are projected to flood the industry with $4.7 billion worth of assets.

Ethereum on Shaky Ground

The upcoming month is also historically bearish for Ethereum. As per an X post shared by Umair Crypto, ETH has marked massive losses in Septembers, especially in the years following halving.

According to past trends, Ethereum's price declined by 21.65% in 2017 and 12.55% in 2021 during Sept. With the current year being a post-halving year, some analysts are wondering if a similar pattern might emerge in 2025. With Ethereum and Bitcoin leading the negative sentiment, the crypto market is expected to see heightened pressure.