XRP ETFs Could Significantly Reduce Circulating Tokens: Steingraber

Institutional XRP ETF Drive Demand Amid Circulating Supply Concerns

A new analysis from researcher Steingraber is gaining attention in the XRP community, suggesting that recently launched XRP ETF,  the investment funds, could rapidly drain the token’s available supply. His estimates show that around $33.6 billion in yearly inflows across seven XRP-focused funds could absorb nearly 15 billion coins at today’s price of $2.25. That represents about 25% of the 60 billion circulating supply.

Source: Chad_Steingraber

According to the report, if big financial players continue buying at this pace, the impact could become dramatic. A more aggressive scenario, where major asset managers like BlackRock join in, could see the circulating supply “gone in less than six months.”

This idea has fueled a strong debate: if supply disappears quickly, what happens to the price?

Institutional Demand Growing Fast

This availability concern is becoming more relevant as more traditional financial firms launch XRP-investment products.

Recently, legacy asset manager Franklin Templeton listed its Franklin XRP Trust (XRPZ) on NYSE Arca. Adding to this momentum, Grayscale’s XRP-ETF (GXRP), along with Dogecoin ETF (GDOG) also began trading on the NYSE on Nov. 24, after clearing NYSE Arca listing requirements and SEC filings.

Recent launches such as Canary Capital’s XRPC fund on November 13 saw strong trading volumes. Other products from the Wall Street firm including Bitwise, are also entering the market, pushing more institutional interest toward the asset.

Meanwhile, exchange balances are extremely low, estimated at just 1–2 billion XRPs. That means there isn’t much readily available for investors to buy, increasing the risk of sharp price moves.

This “supply-squeeze” could drive a major price rally. Skeptics argue that XRP’s main use, cross-border payments, may limit how much ETFs can influence long-term value.

Why Price Matters

Steingraber says every scenario leads to the same conclusion:

“The price of XRP-coin must be extremely high.”

The logic is simple: the lower the price, the more asset these funds need to buy to reach their assets under management (AUM) goals. At $2.25, a yearly inflow of $33.6 billion would require nearly 15B XRPs.

But if the price rises, the amount needed drops sharply:

• $11.25 (5x) → 2.98B XRP per year

• $22.50 (10x) → 1.49B 

• $45 (20x) → 746M 

• $90 (40x) → 373M 

• $135 (60x) → 248M 

• $225 (100x) → 149M
  

Higher prices slow the rate of accumulation, helping prevent the availability from being completely absorbed.

The Big Question: How High Could the Price Go?

The analysis suggests that to avoid a full supply drain, the asset may need to reach much higher price levels over time. Otherwise, ETF demand could remove 30–40 billion tokens from circulation, creating extreme scarcity.

While this outlook is exciting for fans, others warn that real world usage, regulatory developments, and market behavior will ultimately decide how far the price can climb.

For now, the new ETF era is pushing XRP deeper into traditional finance, while raising serious questions about how long the circulating-supply can last.