Is Bitcoin’s 4-Year Price Model Finally Broken?

Rising Liquidity Sparks Debate on Bitcoin’s Cycles

Forget the old scripts, this market isn’t playing by the classic 4-year cycle anymore. For now, the Bitcoin price is climbing in an 18-day uptrend, from $80,650 to around $90,100 at the time of writing, and the conversation across crypto circles is shifting rapidly. Traders aren’t just asking where BTC is headed next; in fact, they’re questioning what truly drives its next explosive move.

Bitcoin Price Prediction vs. the “4-Year Cycle Is Dead” Debate

A popular chartist's chart is circulating, that's suggesting that BTC could face a major decline, similar to every four years. But here’s the twist, a comment to his X post argues that the 4-year rhythm has already collapsed.

Why? Because liquidity has been the real puppet master.

Stablecoin liquidity keeps rising despite recent drawdowns. That clearly means that institutional players haven’t left, in fact, they're sitting on cash or dry powder ready to be used when time is favourable, or simply it's waiting to deploy. And when stablecoins expand, the BTC price tends to follow suit.

Global Liquidity Is Quietly Reloading

Well, here’s the kicker, the analyst explained further in depth why BTC rise is still imminent. He shed more lights on the broader liquidity picture that has been turning bullish globally.

Like, China has been injecting liquidity for months. Japan rolled out a massive $135 billion package, along with easier cryptocurrency regulations.

Canada is leaning toward easing. And the U.S.? QT is already over with December 1st $13.5 Billion liquidity move. The Treasury's TGA stash is approximately $940 billion, which, per an analyst's post, is far above normal. Treasury policy is becoming a major catalyst, and that extra cash typically makes its way back into risk assets.

Then there’s the political layer and a more crypto-friendly policy path, that's why suddenly, the narrative has changed. Beyond just the political layer, growing institutional participation from players like Grayscale, Blackrock, and many others is another advantage we have, making the 4-year pattern repeat less likely in the long term.

Analyst ended his post with".......the environment points to a longer, broader uptrend that could stretch through 2026 and into 2027."

BTC/USD Short-Term Setup: FOMC Is the Spark

So, what’s next for BTC/USD? In the short term coverage, a major move hinges on the December 10 FOMC meeting, which is nearly 24 hours away.

Where a higher possibility of a 0.25% rate cut is there, that's assumed to be fueled by a weakening US job market, which needs action to deal with, and that could trigger a sharp upside move. If there’s no cut, expect a dip first and then long-term structure will play out its role. 

But indicators are leaning bullish, like the 20-day EMA is the current ceiling, while MACD, AO, RSI, and CMF all hint at recovery. RSI especially shows BTC bouncing cleanly from oversold conditions with plenty of room to run.

The macro picture favors continuation. The chart favors a rebound. And the liquidity backdrop? It’s a screaming setup.

The next big Bitcoin price expansion may not follow the past, in fact, it may rewrite the cycle entirely.