Will Bitcoin Price Going Deeper Again? Arthur Hayes Bitcoin Warning

Hayes Bitcoin Price Rally Warning Citing BTC Link to U.S. Tech Stocks

The bitcoin price outlook from BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes appears to be shifting. According to reports shared by Wu Blockchain, Hayes believes the current BTC price rebound toward $74,000 may simply be a “dead cat bounce,” a short-term recovery that happens during a broader market downturn.

This comment from the person who previously predicted a strong rally and supported his $200–250K year end BTC target even after the October 2025 crash, puts the community under Unease: is the golden asset really losing confidence or it is just another warning only?

Why is Hayes Predicted So?

He explained that Bitcoin has yet not become completely independent from the U.S. SaaS technology stocks, meaning the cryptocurrency still behaves like a risk asset tied to traditional markets. Because of this, broader tech-sector weakness could still influence the bitcoin price in the near term.

Hayes advised investors to remain patient, saying the market may still be in a risk phase and has not fully stabilized.

Bitcoin And Market: Current Conditions

U.S. stock futures were mostly steady on Thursday after markets rebounded in the previous session, led by gains in technology and semiconductor stocks. The Dow rose 0.49%, the S&P 500 gained 0.78%, and the Nasdaq jumped 1.29%, with companies like Nvidia, Tesla, Micron, Amazon, and SanDisk posting notable advances. 

Source: NYSE Official 

Market sentiment improved as geopolitical tensions eased slightly, with Donald Trump offering risk insurance and naval escorts for ships in the Persian Gulf while reports suggested Iran may be exploring peace talks with the U.S.

Following that (as per Arthur Hayes), BTC also gained. The asset is currently trading around $72,000, up 1.18% in 24-hours, after recovering from recent lows near the $63,000–$65,000 range.

The rebound has improved short-term sentiment, where many traders are hoping this rally will lead the coin to $80,000 range soon. At the same time resistance levels remained near $74,000–$77,000, where selling pressure could reappear as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump’s planned 15% global tariff could take effect later this week.

Is Arthur Hayes Right This Time: What Support His Views

Arthur Hayes has made several bold predictions about Bitcoin, with mixed results. In 2024, he predicted BTC would surpass $100,000, and the price later reached $108,000 in Dec 2024, before peaking near $126,000 in mid-2025. 

His view on Fed easing and global liquidity partly matched BTC’s rise from about $38,000 in early 2024 to $126,000 in 2025. 

However, some forecasts missed the mark. For example, Hayes expected $250,000 by the end of 2025, but Bitcoin finished the year near $87,500, and as of now it trades near $72,500. 

On the other hand, crypto has changed its behaviour very significantly, what BitMEX co-founder also mentioned as close ties with the US stocks market. In general, geopolitical tensions like, tariffs, war situations, sanctions, help the digital assets to rally as they are out of any centralized control and could protect them in situations where local currencies failed. But now it got in sync with traditional markets’ , reacting in downturn to every government level controversies. 

Long-Term Bitcoin Price View Still Positive

Despite the near-term warning and recent price rides, the long-standing community and institutions support the golden asset. Hayes also has not completely abandoned his long-term optimism. His broader thesis still links the bitcoin price to global liquidity cycles. He believes rising government spending, increasing debt levels, and potential monetary easing could eventually push BTC significantly higher.

For now, however, Arthur suggests that the market could remain volatile and closely tied to traditional risk assets, meaning the next major move in the bitcoin price may depend heavily on macroeconomic conditions.

Note: This article is for informational purposes only; it does not constitute any financial or legal advice.