Powell's Last FOMC Speech: Will Bitcoin & Crypto Crash or Rally Today?

What Can Crypto Markets Expect From Powell's Last Speech?

Is today the last time you will ever hear Jerome Powell speak as the head of the Federal Reserve? Right now, that question is buzzing across Wall Street and the entire crypto world.

Today, April 29, 2026, is widely believed to be Powell's final press conference as Fed Chair before Kevin Warsh takes over next month — and every word he says will move markets.

Nobody is expecting a rate cut today. The CME FedWatch tool is showing 100% probability (as of April 29, 2026) that the Fed keeps interest rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%. This will mark the third consecutive pause in 2026.

So why is the crypto market so nervous? Because it is not the decision that matters — it is what Powell says after it.

Why Is Jerome Powell's Last FOMC Meeting So Important for Crypto?

This is not yesterday's story anymore. Bitcoin is struggling to hold above $75,000, Ethereum holds above $2,300, and XRP has fallen from $1.44 all the way down to $1.38. The total crypto market cap is slightly up by 0.36%, sitting at $2.57 trillion.

More than $103.40 million in long positions got wiped out in liquidations alone. And it gets worse — spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflow of $89.68 million (Source: Sosovalue) yesterday, which means even institutions are pulling back ahead of Powell's statement. The trigger?

The UAE suddenly announced it is leaving OPEC, which sent Brent crude above $110 and reignited inflation fears right before the Fed meeting. Traders are not waiting to see what happens — they are already running for the exit.

Inflation is still running hot. The latest CPI data showed prices rising 4.6% (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 2026) in the 12 months to March, up sharply from 3.7% in February, but below the 4.8% consensus expectation, the highest since mid-2024. This is being driven by energy costs from the ongoing US-Iran conflict and general geopolitical uncertainty.

Powell has to walk a very tight rope today — he cannot sound too easy on inflation, but he also cannot sound too harsh without spooking risk assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: What Happens After the FOMC Decision?

Right now, Bitcoin is trading between $76,700 and $77,800. The key resistance sits at $78,000 to $80,000. If Powell sounds even slightly dovish — suggesting that rate cuts could come later this year — Bitcoin could push toward $85,000 to $90,000 in the short term.

But history says watch out. Bitcoin fell after 7 out of 8 FOMC meetings in 2025. The "sell the news" pattern has been brutal and consistent.

One bright signal in an otherwise cautious picture is spot Bitcoin ETF flows. US Bitcoin ETFs recorded nine straight days of net inflows between April 14 and April 24, pulling in a total of $2.12 billion. That tells you institutions are still buying the dip quietly, even as retail traders panic ahead of this Jerome Powell last FOMC crypto market moment.

Ethereum, Solana, and XRP Price Outlook After Powell's FOMC Speech Today

Ethereum is sitting at $2,321 right now — a price it last saw five years ago, which tells you how rough 2026 has been for ETH holders. Solana is at $84.68, up 0.80% in the last 24 hours, just drifting with no real direction.

XRP is at $1.38, also down about 0.11% on the day. All three are basically waiting on Powell right now. Nobody wants to make a big move before 2:30 PM ET.

If Powell sounds even a little soft on rate cuts, these three could jump fast — altcoins tend to react harder than Bitcoin in both directions. But if he stays hawkish, $2,000 ETH, $75 SOL, and $1.25 XRP are not out of the question before the week ends.

What Does Kevin Warsh's Taking Over Mean for Crypto?

Powell's term officially ends on May 15, 2026. His replacement, Kevin Warsh, has already made clear he wants a different inflation framework and a smaller Fed balance sheet. That sounds hawkish — which is usually bad for risky assets.

But here is the twist: Warsh has also publicly called Bitcoin a "sustainable store of value" and ruled out a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC). That is actually a positive long-term signal for the crypto market, even if the short-term path stays bumpy.

What Are Analysts Watching After Powell's Press Conference?

This is the question every retail investor is asking today. The honest answer is that timing the market around FOMC decisions is extremely difficult. The data shows that even good news from Powell can cause Bitcoin to drop if the market has already priced it in.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index (Alternative.me) has slipped into "Fear" territory at 26, which historically has been a better zone for buyers than sellers — but macro risks are real. Keep position sizes modest and watch the 48 hours after 2:30 PM ET today very closely.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.