Lokesh Gupta
01-05-2025
In May 2025, the BTC enters the spotlight as one of the top gainers, holding close to $94,000 from a remarkable jump back in early April of +14.53%. While crypto enthusiasts do that ritual, "Sell in May and go away," analysts say this year could be the time to hold and ride the next wave of Bitcoin's monumental bullish trend.
In April, Bitcoin rose to the tune of 14.53%, which is appreciable, given the gloomy mood across the market. The year-on-year growth is significant at 29.29%, reaffirming Bitcoin's status as a prime asset in 2025.
Although the increase in April is massive, history has shown it to be less than what was achieved during the mega bull runs in 2013, 2017, and 2020, years pivotal in Bitcoin's journey towards a longer-term bull trend. This could indicate room for further upside potential, particularly as the month progresses through May.
May has always been a difficult month for Bitcoin. The last 15 years of data tell a mixed story: Bitcoin ended the month in the green 9 times and in the red 6 times for a 67% historical chance of a gain. The average return during May came in at +7.94%, indicating that with high volatility but an overall positive bias.
Crypto market analyst Eric Crown noted that this trend, along with bullish Q2 seasonality, provides some careful optimism for the BTC bulls.
This year, May is shaping up to be particularly volatile due to several high-impact catalysts:
1. Federal Reserve Policy Uncertainty
Everybody seems to be watching the Fed meetings and speeches. If there are hints for interest-rate cuts, a fresh tailwind for Bitcoin may arise. On the contrary, if unexpectedly hawkish commentary emerges, this may prove short-lived and trigger a pullback. The crypto market has shown a strong historical reaction to changes in U.S. monetary policy.
2. Trump’s Proposed Tax Policy
President Trump recently proposed some capital-gain and corporate-tax changes, creating waves in the traditional markets, with some analysts believing that the uncertainty surrounding these now-mooted changes has aided April's rally, as investors may want to hedge with decentralized assets such as Bitcoin.
3. Robert Kiyosaki’s “Everything Bubble” Warning
Financial author Robert Kiyosaki has issued another of his warnings, calling this downturn "the biggest market crash in history". He blames global central banks for creating a weak financial system and recommends that his followers protect themselves with gold, silver, real estate, and, more recently, Bitcoin.
"The EVERYTHING BUBBLE is bursting. I am afraid this crash will be the biggest in history," Kiyosaki wrote on X, forewarning his followers of conditions worse than those of the 1929 crash.
When all traditional spheres get ready for summer slowdown, perhaps Bitcoin will defy any seasonal trends. This "Sell in May" strategy is based on the historical performance of equity markets, which typically lack summer activity. Even so, BTC tends to have a cycle of its own, and as the decoupling of equities seems stronger than ever in Q2, such optimism among crypto traders is not surprising.
The expression "Sell in May and go away" relates to the assumption that the stock market has lower returns over summer months. However, the same can not usually be said for the cryptos.
Several analysts argue that this old mantra fails because it is now challenged by macroeconomic changes, strong on-chain metrics, and bullishness underlying long-term fundamentals. At this point, however, one might think that with the total crypto market cap pushing higher again and Bitcoin dominance remaining around multi-month highs, the scenario is suitable for holding – or even buying – into May.
The resilience of Bitcoin near $94K, coupled with strong April momentum, rising investor confidence, and a potential policy-induced catalyst landscape, sets the tone for an exciting month ahead.
Volatility should be expected; however, odds appear to be tipping toward the continuation of the bull run, against historical seasonal headwinds.
Lokesh Gupta is a seasoned financial expert with 23 years of experience in Forex, Comex, NSE, MCX, NCDEX, and cryptocurrency markets. Investors have trusted his technical analysis skills so they may negotiate market swings and make wise investment selections. Lokesh merges his deep understanding of the market with his enthusiasm for teaching in his role as Content & Research Lead, producing informative pieces that give investors a leg up. In both conventional and cryptocurrency markets, he is a reliable adviser because of his strategic direction and ability to examine intricate market movements. Dedicated to study, market analysis, and investor education, Lokesh keeps abreast of the always-changing financial scene. His accurate and well-researched observations provide traders and investors with the tools they need to thrive in ever-changing market conditions.
Lokesh Gupta is a seasoned financial expert with 23 years of experience in Forex, Comex, NSE, MCX, NCDEX, and cryptocurrency markets. Investors have trusted his technical analysis skills so they may negotiate market swings and make wise investment selections. Lokesh merges his deep understanding of the market with his enthusiasm for teaching in his role as Content & Research Lead, producing informative pieces that give investors a leg up. In both conventional and cryptocurrency markets, he is a reliable adviser because of his strategic direction and ability to examine intricate market movements. Dedicated to study, market analysis, and investor education, Lokesh keeps abreast of the always-changing financial scene. His accurate and well-researched observations provide traders and investors with the tools they need to thrive in ever-changing market conditions.
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