Bitcoin Breaks the ‘Uptober’ Streak: What’s Next for BTC?

Bitcoin Defies Historical Trends as Uptober Ends in Decline

October has traditionally been one of the most prosperous months for Bitcoin, but its weaker performance points to a wider rejection of historical trends. 

The wildly speculative nature of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency’s famous volatility are partly why investors and traders are so enamoured with the asset. However, the few cyclical trends that have driven BTC higher are becoming increasingly confounding to those closest to the crypto ecosystem. 

Bitcoins stock-to-flow (S2F) ratio, which charted the coin’s progress following its halving events every four years, was once one of its strongest indicators of future growth. Now, as institutional adoption ramps up, the cryptocurrency is less susceptible than ever to the halving of its mining rewards. 

Another historical trend that appears to have been bucked is its ‘Uptober’ phenomenon, whereby BTC would consistently appreciate during the month of October. 

Over the past 10 years, it has only suffered losses in October once, back in 2018, leading to the label ‘Uptober.’ 

Times appear to be changing, and so too is Digital gold. Despite reaching a new all-time high value of $126,000 at the beginning of the month, it fell 14.5% from its peak before closing out the month at just over $108,000. 

Traditionally, Q4 has been a prosperous time for cryptocurrency investors, with more money entering markets, but this year has underlined how Digital gold is decoupling from its long-standing trends. 

Absorbing Economic Uncertainty

According to Bitwise Senior Investment Strategist Juan Leon, Digital gold October struggles were driven by macroeconomic challenges, weak internal market structures, and concerns about future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s warning that further rate reductions were “not a foregone conclusion” pushed Digital gold lower. 

At the same time, the entire cryptocurrency market has shown vulnerability amid President Trump’s tariff threats against China, with fears over a re-escalation in the ongoing trade war leading to more than $19 billion worth of liquidations, with 90% involving long positions taken up by traders. 

During its recent struggles, Bitcoin decoupled from the Nasdaq index, which houses some of the world’s most valuable tech stocks. Although this deviation appears to be a result of profit-taking among long-term holders off the back of the recent all-time high for BTC, it could also provide some foreboding for Wall Street amid the recent wave of economic uncertainty. 

When Bitcoin topped out following its post-halving rally in November 2021, US stocks followed the subsequent decline around a month later. While more tech leaders are growing to astronomical proportions, the ongoing struggles in the cryptocurrency market may signify a wider market top for investors. 

Could Bitcoin Recover?

Given that cryptocurrency markets are largely speculative, the recent move by the Federal Reserve to pump $29.4 billion into the banking system has sparked fresh optimism that the liquidity-easing measure could support further action towards risk assets like Bitcoin. 

This liquidity boost helps to counteract economic tightening by temporarily expanding bank reserves, which lowers short-term rates and eases borrowing pressures. 

As a result, the move supports risky assets like Bitcoin, which are considered pure plays on fiat liquidity. 

Despite this, the Fed’s actions aren’t akin to quantitative easing (QE) measures, which involve direct asset purchases to boost the overall liquidity in the system over the long term. This means that investors should be aware of the short-term implications of any flurry of cryptocurrency activity in the wake of these liquidity changes and the risk of overconfidence bias, which may see BTC artificially inflated by investors. 

Nic Puckrin, cofounder of Coin Bureau, suggested that November could be a ‘choppy’ month for Bitcoin, despite signs that a period of quantitative tightening is coming to an end. This mixed outlook stems from the ongoing US government shutdown and difficulty in anticipating future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. 

BTC at the Mercy of Speculation

Given that Bitcoin has so often thrived in October regardless of the political and monetary climate, it’s becoming apparent that the cryptocurrency landscape is increasingly at the mercy of investor sentiment. 

Although the scarcity of BTC is only set to increase, miners are turning their attention and computational power towards artificial intelligence. One firm managed to increase its share price by 500% on the back of its AI pivot, illustrating that the significance of tech booms away from the crypto landscape is driving exceptional levels of interest. 

This may be a further factor in undermining the strength of Bitcoin’s old post-halving event rallies. 

For investors, this presents new risks and opportunities. As BTC decouples from its traditional cycles and trends, there’s more scope for traders to build their strategies around anticipating changing sentiment and speculation. Those able to keep their ear to the ground could benefit more from Bitcoin in the months ahead, particularly as the short-term macroeconomic outlook for the US remains clouded. 

Bitcoin in 2025 is becoming less recognisable than ever before, but its ability to reward investors who are skilled at anticipating new market impacts may still be as strong as ever.

This article was contributed by Dmytro Spilka.