US CPI Data Release Today Could Trigger Bitcoin Price Swings

Why US CPI Data Matters for Fed Rate Policy and Broader Crypto Markets

The US CPI data for December 2025 is all set for today's release at 1:30 PM UTC. With the release announcement, investors and crypto traders are keeping a close eye to it and forecasting a 2.7% YoY rate, same as last November 2025 data. 

Source: US Bureau Of Labour Statistics

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $91,200 (+1.77%), while the whole marketplace is up with 1.47%. However, judging from previous scenarios, market experts are expecting that any surprise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could lead to rapid price swings, major effects on cryptocurrencies and upcoming Federal Reserve policies.

Source: Ash Crypto

At the same time a question also arises: how could this inflation report trigger a wave of Bitcoin volatility and market movements?

Why Is the US CPI Data Important?

The Consumer Price Index, which measures inflation in the US, significantly impacts interest rate decisions made by the Federal Reserve. The index is used by investors to gauge the economic conditions, liquidity, as well as market risk appetite.

A lower-than-expected value could fuel hopes of rate cuts from the Fed, while a higher-than-expected number may hint at a tough monetary policy and impact traditional as well as digital currencies.

How Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Reacted Historically

For the crypto space, the data is not only a piece of macro news, but a trigger for volatility as well. The past has shown that 3-8% fluctuations can be recorded by the price of Bitcoin within 24 hours after the release of the index' figures, either pushing the price of Bitcoin up due to low inflation readings or down due to high inflation readings.

Examples of significant past occurrences of patent trolls

• June 2022: Hot-CPI (9.1%) - BTC down 8% due to rate worries.

• July 2024: Soft-CPI (3.4%) – BTC up about 7% the following day.

• November, 2025: CPI softer than expected (2.7%) – BTC rallied initially.

Bitcoin is more sensitive to the surprise component, and the actual numbers. Following the Consumer Price Index, liquidations of $50-100 million+ take place, and institutional outflows also move to rebalance portfolios depending on implications for monetary policies.

Traders are anticipating strong price movements right after the release.

Looking Ahead

The December 2025 CPI may influence the crypto market in the coming weeks. Participants in the crypto market should evaluate the following aspects regarding the December 2025 data:

• Short-term BTC swings following surprises.

• Implications of Fed policies on risk-on/risk-off patterns.

• Adoption and liquidity flows at the institutional level that may suppress/amplify volatility.

• Opportunities in macro sentiment-linked altcoins and DeFi platforms.

The knowledge of these trends helps the crypto investor predict market trends, while adoption remains on the rise in the long run in the year 2026.