Lokesh Gupta
01-05-2026
Will Bitcoin repeat one of its biggest crashes just because of a calendar date? That question is back on every trader's mind right now — and the answer may surprise you.
Every year when May begins, one old Wall Street phrase starts trending in financial circles: sell in May and go away. For Bitcoin, this phrase has carried real, painful weight in past cycles.
In 2026, with four straight green weeks behind Bitcoin and market uncertainty ahead, traders are watching this pattern more closely than ever.
Bitcoin has seen some of its worst crashes begin right around May. In 2014, it fell close to 61%. In 2018, it dropped nearly 65%. And in 2022, it lost around 66% of its value, all starting around May. These are not small corrections. These are some of the most brutal crashes in crypto history.
2014: -61% in May
2018: -65% in May
2022: -66% in May
2025: +16.9% in May
That history is exactly why the sell in May and go away theory carries so much weight for Bitcoin investors, especially during weak or uncertain market conditions.
Bitcoin closed April with four straight weeks of gains and is already up about 2% on May 1. On the surface, that looks strong. But many analysts are not convinced this momentum will last.
Well-known crypto analyst Crypto Rover has pointed out a pattern straight from 2018. Back then, Bitcoin also climbed for five straight weeks leading into May — and then crashed hard.
The market setup in 2026 looks very similar, which has him and other analysts worried that sell in May and go away could play out again this year.
Since 2020, a clear and consistent pattern has formed. Every time Bitcoin failed to break above its April high within the first five days of May, the rest of the month dropped by at least 5%. The average loss in those cases was close to 20%.
Key alert: April's high sits near $79,500. If Bitcoin fails to push past this level before May 5, analysts say a sharp drop becomes very likely.
This year, that level is $79,500.
Analyst DefiTracer has warned that if the sell in May and go away pattern. Bitcoin just hit May, and history is screaming danger. In 2014, 2018, and 2022 — all midterm years — Bitcoin crashed between 69% and 72% starting right in May.
That's three cycles, three massive dumps, zero exceptions. If this death pattern repeats one more time, Bitcoin could fall all the way to $30,000 from here.
Crypto Bitlord, a well-known crypto voice, had already flagged $30,000 as the next major support level back in January 2026.
Not always. Looking at Bitcoin's monthly returns since 2013, May actually ranks as the 6th best month by average return. Some of the biggest May gains on record include 52% in 2019, 52% in 2017, and nearly 39% in 2014.
Last year in 2025, Bitcoin broke April's high on May 1 and surged 16.9% to reach $112,000 by May 22.
Since 2018, Bitcoin has closed May in the red only four out of eight times. So the sell in May and go away rule is not a guarantee — it depends heavily on where Bitcoin stands versus its key price levels early in the month.
If Bitcoin breaks above $80,000 in the first five days of May, a move toward $90,000 to $95,000 is possible. However, if it fails to reclaim that level, a correction toward $60,000 to $70,000 becomes the more likely scenario.
A deeper fall toward $30,000 remains a risk only if broader market conditions weaken sharply and sellers take full control.
Either way, the next few days are critical. May 2026 could be the month Bitcoin breaks the sell in May and go away trend — or the month it confirms it once again.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Crypto markets are highly volatile. Always do your own research before investing.
Lokesh Gupta is a seasoned financial expert with 23 years of experience in Forex, Comex, NSE, MCX, NCDEX, and cryptocurrency markets. Investors have trusted his technical analysis skills so they may negotiate market swings and make wise investment selections. Lokesh merges his deep understanding of the market with his enthusiasm for teaching in his role as Content & Research Lead, producing informative pieces that give investors a leg up. In both conventional and cryptocurrency markets, he is a reliable adviser because of his strategic direction and ability to examine intricate market movements. Dedicated to study, market analysis, and investor education, Lokesh keeps abreast of the always-changing financial scene. His accurate and well-researched observations provide traders and investors with the tools they need to thrive in ever-changing market conditions.
Lokesh Gupta is a seasoned financial expert with 23 years of experience in Forex, Comex, NSE, MCX, NCDEX, and cryptocurrency markets. Investors have trusted his technical analysis skills so they may negotiate market swings and make wise investment selections. Lokesh merges his deep understanding of the market with his enthusiasm for teaching in his role as Content & Research Lead, producing informative pieces that give investors a leg up. In both conventional and cryptocurrency markets, he is a reliable adviser because of his strategic direction and ability to examine intricate market movements. Dedicated to study, market analysis, and investor education, Lokesh keeps abreast of the always-changing financial scene. His accurate and well-researched observations provide traders and investors with the tools they need to thrive in ever-changing market conditions.
Owned by:-
DCG Tech FZCO, UAE
Delivery Partner:-
Gabbar MediaTech Pvt Ltd.
Copyright © 2026 Coin Gabbar. All Rights Reserved.
