Bitcoin’s Monthly Chart Signals Another Historic Cycle in Motion

From Red Candles to Green Cycles: Is Bitcoin Repeating History Again?

In the year 2025, when Bitcoin is lagging behind gold and silver, the pivotal question arises: is BTC about to make another historic breakout or the weakness being seen is just the signal of a deeper correction before the bull cycle begins?

The long-term Bitcoin chart, the institutional commentary and the on-chain structure are all pointing up that the current phase might not be the end but the middle of a bigger cycle.

Bitcoin Underperforms Gold and Silver: Temporary Weakness or Structural Shift?

There is no doubt that BTC has clearly underperformed this year when compared to gold and silver. From January 1st, gold has gained almost 72%, whereas silver has increased by nearly 150%. On the other hand, over the same period, Bitcoin has lost around 7% and is not able to get strong buying interest.

The weakness is primarily due to diminishing trading volumes which, in turn, has been caused by the market's lesser participation during the festive season when the Christmas and New Year holidays are celebrated. 

Liquidity is less and the investors' risk-taking is still low—the circumstances that have usually put pressure on Bitcoin temporarily in the short run are just the same now.

Bitcoin's Long-Term Chart Unveils a Cycle that is Familiar

The yearly chart of BTC, when zoomed out, tells a remarkably consistent tale. Long consolidation followed each major bull phase:

• 2013 and 2017: After extended accumulation, explosive upside

• 2020–2021: Institutional inflows resulted in strong green candles

• 2023–2024: A powerful breakout confirming cycle continuation

Patience was required for each bullish phase and then, corrections ensued.

Why Corrections Are Normal: Red Candles Before Green

The most significant drops in the price during the years 2011, 2013, 2018, and 2022 were all represented with huge yearly red candles, which marked the intense market pullbacks. But, in hindsight, those years were the ones that really laid the foundation for the next bull run.

At present, Bitcoin's price is approximately $87,000, which is a direct result of the powerful breakout in 2024. Even though the momentum has decreased, history indicates that the phases of cooling often reinforce the long-term trend whatever its direction.

RSI Signals Strength—But Also Caution

The RSI has seen above 70, indicating that the market is still trending strongly on the macro level. At the same time, it points to a slight overbought situation, thus raising the chances of consolidation instead of immediate trend continuation.

This scenario is supported by a well-known plot:

• Bullish long-term trend

• Short-term correction or sideways movement

• Next expansion phase set-up

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VanEck’s Perspective: The Weakness of Bitcoin Is Not of the Structure

David Schassler, the Head of Multi-Asset Solutions at VanEck, considers the temporary nature of Bitcoin's underperformance against gold and the Nasdaq 100, not structural.

Schassler said:

• Gold retains positive factors in the case of risk-averse investors and limited liquidity

• Basic principle of Bitcoin remains as it was

• The recovery could happen as the rate of currency debasement and the amount of global liquidity rise

He is of the view that BTC might turn out to be one of the best-performing assets by 2026 when the appetite for risk returns.

Bitcoin Price Prediction 2026–2027: What Analysts Anticipate

Alex Thorn anticipates BTC might hit $250,000 by the close of 2027, while the year 2026 remains very much in the air. The options market mirrors this uncertainty by pricing up extreme scenarios: 

• By mid-2026: both $70K and $130K still possible

• By end-2026: very broad range of $50K to $250K

As per BTC Price Prediction Such volatility is evidence of a market that is changing its direction—but not collapsing.

Resistance Levels That Are Crucial to Observe

In spite of the long-term positivity, the near-term risks are still present. The market experts believe that the BTC needs to get back into the zone of $100,000–$105,000 with great certainty to discard the negatives.

Until that time, the market remains vulnerable to:

• Economic pressure

• Lack of liquidity

• Risk-averse mood

Bitcoin Is Changing into a Macro Asset

One important trend is the decline in Bitcoin's long-term volatility. The changing behavior of BTC is due to the institutional strategies like yield generation and downside hedging.

Signals that the market is interpreting include:

• Protection against losses costs more than potential profits

• Less and less eruptions of volatility

• More and more large investors entering the market

Bitcoin is slowly moving from being a high-risk growth asset to gold-like low-risk asset.

Is Bitcoin Still Bullish Long Term?

To put it differently, if past events are to be considered clues, the current consolidation may well be the accumulation phase for the next great move in Bitcoin’s price.

Disclaimer

Crypto price predictions are for informational purposes only and not financial advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, and prices can change at any time. Do your own research before investing. We are not responsible for any financial losses.