RAIN surprised the crypto market with a sharp 20% jump in just 24 hours. But the real question investors are asking is simple — is this the start of a bigger rally or a trap before the token unlock?
The move came while the overall crypto market was weak, which makes the rise more important. Traders are rotating money into selective altcoins showing strength, and RAIN became one of the top targets. When a coin rises during a falling market, it usually signals accumulation by larger buyers, not just retail hype.
And here is why the excitement is growing — the rally is happening right before a massive token unlock event. That creates both opportunity and risk at the same time.
On 10 February, around 37.43 billion tokens will enter circulation. That equals roughly $338 million worth of tokens, which is extremely large compared to the project’s liquidity.
More importantly, the unlock equals about 11% of the total market cap. In crypto markets, unlocks above 5% often trigger profit-taking from early investors and private-sale participants. When that happens, selling pressure increases faster than new buyers enter.
This is why traders are watching closely.
Sometimes prices pump before unlocks because investors expect future hype — but after the unlock, supply suddenly rises.
So the current rally could actually be a pre-unlock momentum move.
Current Market Structure
Currently, the token is trading around $0.0107 and moving inside a clear ascending channel. The chart shows higher highs and higher lows, which usually indicates controlled bullish accumulation rather than a temporary spike.
Source: CoinMarketCap
The price is now testing resistance near $0.0110.
If buyers successfully hold above this level, the trend confirms a breakout.
Bullish Scenario
If RAIN closes above $0.0110:
First target: $0.0125
Second target: $0.0135
Momentum extension possible if volume increases
A breakout would show buyers are strong enough to absorb potential unlock selling.
Bearish Scenario
If the breakout fails and price drops back into the channel:
First support: $0.0096 – $0.0090
Major support: $0.0080
If it loses $0.0090, the bullish structure weakens and traders may exit positions quickly.
Right now, RAIN remains bullish as long as it holds the lower trendline. However, the token release introduces a short-term risk event.
The most likely pattern in such cases:
Pre-unlock price pump
Increased volatility
Possible sell-the-news reaction
So the coming days are critical. The market is not just pricing the project — it is pricing supply shock.
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and not financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always do your own research (DYOR) before investing.
Lokesh Gupta is a seasoned financial expert with 23 years of experience in Forex, Comex, NSE, MCX, NCDEX, and cryptocurrency markets. Investors have trusted his technical analysis skills so they may negotiate market swings and make wise investment selections. Lokesh merges his deep understanding of the market with his enthusiasm for teaching in his role as Content & Research Lead, producing informative pieces that give investors a leg up. In both conventional and cryptocurrency markets, he is a reliable adviser because of his strategic direction and ability to examine intricate market movements. Dedicated to study, market analysis, and investor education, Lokesh keeps abreast of the always-changing financial scene. His accurate and well-researched observations provide traders and investors with the tools they need to thrive in ever-changing market conditions.