Why Coinbase Stock Is Up Today: Is S&P 500 Inclusion Behind This?

Coinbase Stock Surges After S&P 500 Inclusion—Is $280 the Next Target?

Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ: COIN) just made history on Wall Street. With its official addition to the prestigious S&P 500 index on May 19, 2025, Coinbase is the first-ever solo stand-alone cryptocurrency pure-play company to become part of the highly selective club of America's largest 500 listed companies. The news saw an instant surge in Coinbase shares, with the stock increasing more than 8% in after-market trading and crossing the $225 barrier. Is this the start of a bigger move, though?

Let's look at the technicals, fundamentals, and sentiment and see what the next likely price target for the stock would be.

COIN Stock Reacts Sharply to S&P 500 Inclusion

Coinbase’s inclusion in the S&P 500—replacing Discover Financial Services (NYSE: DFS)—marks a significant milestone for both the company and the broader crypto ecosystem. Celebrated across the industry, Michael Saylor praised CEO Brian Armstrong for leading Coinbase to this institutional benchmark, signalling growing mainstream acceptance of digital asset platforms.

According to Nasdaq data, COIN stock surged over 10% in the past 24 hours and was trading around $228 in the After-Market Trading session. Despite the recent pump, COIN still sits over 35% below its all-time high, indicating considerable room for upside.

Largest Crypto Acquisition Adds Fuel to the Rally

Only days ago from the news of index inclusion, Coinbase stood in the spotlight after acquiring Deribit, the largest crypto options trading platform, in a $2.9 billion M&A transaction. Coinbase's historic M&A, the largest in the history of crypto, greatly enhances Coinbase's derivatives product and sets it up to compete with institutional giants.

With such endeavors, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan forecasted that the exchange may become a trillion-dollar organization, further enhancing investor sentiment.

Technical Outlook: Inverse Head and Shoulders Signals a Bullish Breakout

Technically, COIN stock is presenting us with an old inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart—a positive bullish reversal signal. The resistance neckline around $215-$218 also aligns with the 100-day and 200-day EMAs, enhancing the support for the breakout level as well. A solid base of support has been established at $150, which is also the bottom of the pattern.

The After-Market Trading price of the stock, approximately $228 validates a breakout on the daily chart of the stock, extending a trend of the bullish kind. As per the report, a breakout higher than the neckline with growing volume indicates a possible trend reversal. To predict the target price, analysts add the depth from the head level to the neckline level ($215 – $150 = $65) and arrive at an estimated target of approximately $280. If COIN continues above $220 with heavy volume, it would affirm the breakout and pave the way for a rally to $280 in the weeks to come.

Source: TradingView

The relative strength index (RSI) at 57.71 is far from overbought, meaning that there is still tonnes of room left before the buyers are tired.