Lokesh Gupta
30-04-2026
Is Bitcoin about to bounce — or are more painful losses coming?
Bitcoin just took a serious hit. After the Federal Reserve's April 29 meeting, BTC dropped from $77,000 all the way down to $74,914 in just a few hours.
The Fed held interest rates steady at 3.50–3.75% for the fourth straight time. Everyone expected it. Bitcoin fell anyway. And the on-chain numbers behind this crash tell a story that every trader needs to read carefully right now.
This is where the numbers get brutal.
According to CoinGlass data, a total of 122,173 traders got liquidated in just 24 hours — wiping out $534.86 million in total positions. 
Out of that, $372.36 million came from long positions — traders who bet BTC would go up. Only $162.50 million came from shorts. That tells you clearly: most people were on the wrong side of this trade.
The single biggest liquidation of the day happened on Binance's ETHUSDT pair, worth $7.90 million in one shot. That's not a small retail trader losing lunch money. That's serious institutional-level damage happening in real time.
These liquidation numbers confirm what the price action was already showing — this was not a small shake. It was a structured flush of overleveraged long positions caught off guard by the sell-the-news wave.
The funding rate is one of the most honest signals in crypto — and right now it's flashing a warning.
The Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rate turned negative on Wednesday, right after a brief neutral-to-bullish period on Tuesday. In a normal, healthy market, this rate stays between 6% and 12%, meaning buyers pay a small fee to keep their positions open.
When the rate goes negative, it flips — sellers start paying buyers instead. That shift tells you the market is leaning bearish in the short term.
A negative funding rate does have a silver lining, though. When too many traders are betting on the downside, there are fewer leveraged long positions left to liquidate. That actually limits how far BTC can fall from here. It's a built-in floor of sorts.
This is not random. This is a pattern.
BTC has dropped after 9 out of the last 10 FOMC meetings going back to July 2025. Before each meeting, traders buy Bitcoin expecting a positive outcome.
Once the meeting passes and the uncertainty disappears, those same traders cash out. The event is over, so the reason to hold the position is gone.
This "sell-the-news in May" cycle has worked after rate cuts in September and November 2025, and after holds in January and March 2026. The actual Fed decision doesn't matter — the unwinding of pre-event positions does.
This time, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $137.77 million in net outflows on April 29 alone, snapping a 9-day inflow streak. Big money was heading for the exit, not the entrance.
Here is what the charts are actually telling us right now.
Bitcoin is sitting at a critical zone between $74,900 and $75,500. This is the make-or-break level. If BTC closes back above the 20-day moving average near $75,827 and holds that zone for two consecutive daily candles, the next targets are:
$78,900 — the 0.5 Fibonacci resistance level
$83,400 — the 0.618 Fibonacci level
$88,000–$90,000 — the big target if bullish momentum returns
Long-term holders did not sell during this dip. Their supply stayed completely flat. That is a strong sign that experienced Bitcoin investors still believe in higher prices ahead.
However, if BTC price breaks and closes below $74,900, the bullish setup breaks down. The next danger zones would be $72,000 and then $68,800, where strong buying previously showed up.
On May 15, Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair ends — and Kevin Warsh is expected to take over, pending full Senate confirmation. Powell will remain on the Fed Board as a Governor until at least 2028, making him the first outgoing chair to stay on the board since 1948.
Warsh has publicly pushed for faster and more aggressive rate cuts, criticizing the current pace as too slow.
If he delivers a genuinely dovish surprise at the June 18 FOMC meeting, it could finally break the sell-the-news cycle — or make it worse if he disappoints an already high-expectation market.
Nobody has a crystal ball on Warsh yet. But the 48-hour window from April 30 to May 1 is the most important short-term signal. Stable ETF inflows, BTC holding above $75,000, and funding rates returning to neutral would all be green lights pointing toward the $88K target by summer.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Crypto investments carry risk. Always do your own research before investing.
Lokesh Gupta is a seasoned financial expert with 23 years of experience in Forex, Comex, NSE, MCX, NCDEX, and cryptocurrency markets. Investors have trusted his technical analysis skills so they may negotiate market swings and make wise investment selections. Lokesh merges his deep understanding of the market with his enthusiasm for teaching in his role as Content & Research Lead, producing informative pieces that give investors a leg up. In both conventional and cryptocurrency markets, he is a reliable adviser because of his strategic direction and ability to examine intricate market movements. Dedicated to study, market analysis, and investor education, Lokesh keeps abreast of the always-changing financial scene. His accurate and well-researched observations provide traders and investors with the tools they need to thrive in ever-changing market conditions.
Lokesh Gupta is a seasoned financial expert with 23 years of experience in Forex, Comex, NSE, MCX, NCDEX, and cryptocurrency markets. Investors have trusted his technical analysis skills so they may negotiate market swings and make wise investment selections. Lokesh merges his deep understanding of the market with his enthusiasm for teaching in his role as Content & Research Lead, producing informative pieces that give investors a leg up. In both conventional and cryptocurrency markets, he is a reliable adviser because of his strategic direction and ability to examine intricate market movements. Dedicated to study, market analysis, and investor education, Lokesh keeps abreast of the always-changing financial scene. His accurate and well-researched observations provide traders and investors with the tools they need to thrive in ever-changing market conditions.
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