Operation Roaring Lion: Why BTC Fell 6% and Where is the Bottom?

War Alert: Will Bitcoin Price Prediction Hit a New 2026 Low?

The Bitcoin Price Prediction outlook has turned uncertain as geopolitical tensions escalate.

Israel’s “Operation Roaring Lion” and the U.S. “Operation Epic Fury” strikes on Iran have triggered a sharp risk-off reaction across global markets.

The total crypto market cap has fallen around 4.3% to $2.21 trillion.

As of February 28, 2026, BTC is down 4.43%, trading near $63,837, while Ethereum (ETH) has dropped 6.68% to around $1,857.

Rising volatility, weakening market sentiment, and macro uncertainty are pressuring digital assets.

The key question now is whether BTC will break below the $60,000 support level or stabilize after this war-driven correction.

$100M Liquidated in 15 Minutes as Bitcoin Slides After Israel–Iran Escalation

According to The Kobeissi Letter, price slipped below the $64,000 level following reports of Israeli strikes on Iran. 

The sudden move triggered intense derivatives volatility, with over $100 million in leveraged long positions wiped out within just 15 minutes.

The rapid liquidation cascade shows how sensitive the crypto market remains to geopolitical shocks, especially when leverage is elevated and sentiment shifts abruptly.

Alleged $5B BTC Dump Sparks Manipulation Claims

Crypto commentator DefiWimar claimed that the recent crash was triggered by coordinated large-scale selling from major exchanges and trading firms.

According to the post, platforms including Binance (15,944 BTC), Bybit (13,584 BTC), Bitfinex (12,396 BTC), Kraken (7,057 BTC), Coinbase (6,520 BTC), Wintermute (6,080 coins), FalconX (5,796 BTC), and other insiders collectively offloaded significant amounts of BTC within a short window.

The tweet alleges that nearly $5 billion worth of coin was sold within 30 minutes, framing the move as potential coordinated manipulation.

However, such claims remain unverified and should be viewed cautiously, as exchange flows and derivative liquidations often amplify volatility during high-stress market events.

4-Hour Chart Analysis

On the 4-hour chart, price is trading inside a falling wedge, reflecting sustained selling pressure.

Price recently broke below the key $65,000 support, and is now hovering near short-term support around $62,000.

The 21 EMA is acting as dynamic resistance, preventing any strong upside recovery. As long as price remains below this level, short-term momentum favors the bears.

The RSI is near 35, close to the oversold zone but not fully there yet. This suggests that there is still room for further downside if selling pressure continues.

If geopolitical tensions escalate and price breaks below $62,000, the next downside targets could appear near:

• $60,000

• $55,500

On the upside, bearish pressure is likely to persist unless price reclaims and sustains above

• $68,000

• The 21 EMA resistance

Until then, the broader short-term structure remains weak.

Key Support Levels:

• $62,000

• $60,000

• $55,500

Key Resistance Levels:

• $65,000

• $68,000

• $71,180

Bear Pennant Pattern Signals Potential Downside

Crypto analyst Washigorira recently highlighted a Bitcoin bear pennant formation on the daily chart. 

According to the post, a breakdown has already occurred, and a retest of the pennant structure is currently underway, with the market awaiting confirmation of direction.

The chart suggests that if the bearish pennant resolves downward, the projected target sits near the $38,000–$40,000 zone. 

This pattern typically signals continuation of the prior downtrend, especially if price fails to reclaim the broken structure.

For now, the focus remains on whether price confirms the breakdown or invalidates the bearish setup with a strong recovery.

Death Cross Forms on 3-Day Chart

According to Crypto Rover, a potential death cross is forming on the 3-day Bitcoin chart, where the 50 SMA is crossing below the 200 SMA.

This pattern is generally considered bearish, signaling increasing downside momentum. 

With price currently trading below both moving averages, selling pressure may persist unless Bitcoin manages to reclaim and trade back above these EMAs.

Conclusion: War Shock, Liquidations & What’s Next for Bitcoin?

The recent decline is more than a routine pullback. It reflects a combination of geopolitical escalation, rapid liquidations, heavy exchange flows, and weakening technical structure. 

The $100M liquidation wave highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter, along with large dump claims reported by DeFiWimar, shows how leverage intensified the sell-off.

On the charts, the 4-hour weakness, daily bear pennant, and emerging 3-day death cross keep short-term pressure intact. 

In terms of Bitcoin Price Prediction, the market is at a decisive point. Holding key support could stabilize price, but a breakdown may increase the risk of a deeper 2026 low.

YMYL Disclaimer: This article is strictly informational in nature and does not constitute an investment recommendation. Investment in cryptocurrencies is extremely volatile, and market conditions can change quickly based on macro data. High volatility can result in significant capital loss. It is always essential to do your own research before making any investment.