Bitcoin November Performance Drops 24%, Can BTC Bounce Back Soon?

Bitcoin November Performance Falls, Will December Break the Red Trend?

Why is Bitcoin struggling so much this month, and can it recover before November ends?

This question is at the center of market discussions as Bitcoin November Performance shows a steep decline of nearly 24%, putting the crypto on track for its weakest November in six years. 

With only five days left and a slow Thanksgiving trading weekend behind us, the market is watching closely to see how the month will close. 

November Turns Red as Bitcoin Fights Heavy Selling

Bitcoin November Performance has surprised many traders because this month is usually one of this crypto’s strongest months. 

Source: X (formerly Twitter) 

But this time, It has fallen almost 24%, slipping far below key support levels.

Based on historical patterns, every time this cryptocurrency has ended November in the red, December has also closed red. This trend has raised new concerns about how the year might end. 

To flip November green, it would need a massive 25% rally from current levels. With the BTC price trading around the $86K zone, such a move is possible but unlikely unless a strong catalyst appears.

Massive On-Chain Activity Shows Rising Market Tension

CoinMarketCap data revealed a huge shift beneath the surface:

• More than 8% of It’s total supply changed hands over the past week.

• This is one of the largest on-chain events in the coin’s history.

Such aggressive repositioning suggests that traders are preparing for a major move ahead of the Federal Reserve’s December 10 rate-cut decision. The market expects volatility, and large players appear to be moving early.

Rate Cut Expectations Rise: A Major Catalyst for BTC

A powerful shift has taken place in macro expectations. Just ten days ago, the probability of a rate cut at the December FOMC meeting was 45%. Now, the odds have shot up to 81%, making it one of the biggest sentiment swings this year.

Rate cuts are typically bullish for risky assets because they increase liquidity and lower borrowing costs. Many analysts believe that if the Fed confirms a cut, the digital currencycould see a strong Santa Claus rally, even if the market is still in a broader correction. 

Institutions Quietly Accumulate Despite ETF Outflows

While Bitcoin ETF outflows reached $3.57 billion this month, not all institutions are selling.

• BlackRock added 953 coins, lifting its total holdings to more than 777,000 BTC.

• Metaplanet is raising $150M to buy more BTC after already holding $2.67B worth.

• MicroStrategy (Strategy) continues adjusting its custody approach. New Arkham data shows the company has moved 58,390 BTC to Fidelity over the past two months. In total, Strategy holds 641,692 BTC, with 165,709 coins now secured under Fidelity Custody.

This shows that while some ETF investors are taking profit, long-term institutional holders remain confident.

Analysts Say BTC May Be Near a Bottom

On CNBC, Anthony Pompliano said Bitcoin appears to be “close to bottoming out” and may begin “slowly grinding back” as sellers lose momentum. Technical charts support this view:

• RSI is hovering near oversold levels

• Selling pressure is cooling

• Price is holding above the key $86K support zone

Source: CMC

If It can keep this level, a recovery toward $90K–94K remains possible in December. 

Conclusion: Can It Break the Red-November Curse?

Bitcoin November Performance looks weak, but the market is not without hope. A possible rate cut, huge on-chain activity, and steady institutional buying may help BTC stabilize. The big question now is simple:

Will December follow the past pattern and close red, or will a Santa Claus rally break the cycle? 

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and not a financial advice, kindly do your own research before investing in crypto market.