Uptober, Moonvember, Pumpcember: Is the Crypto Cycle Back?

Will Historical Crypto Cycle Repeat? Bull Run Ahead

As 2025 Q4 approaches, the crypto market finds itself at a critical juncture, sparking speculations of a bull run after the challenging “Redtember.” If historical patterns of the crypto cycle repeat, the market is poised to witness a continuous bull run ahead, with experts predicting the onset of “Uptober,” followed by “Moonvember,” and “Pumpcember.”

Will Historical Crypto Cycle Repeat?

In a recent X post, analyst Gordon predicted the incoming launch of an Altcoin season in Q4. Following the traditionally tough September, often called the Redtember, the next crypto cycle is likely to see a massive resurgence with the emergence of a possibly positive October. As historical patterns suggest that October is overwhelmingly bullish, it is dubbed Uptober. Similarly, the succeeding months, namely November and December, which also look promising, are described as Moonvember and Pumpcember.

Driven by these trends, analysts like Gordon remain optimistic about the imminent Altcoin season in the next quarter. October, in particular, is significantly bullish, driven by the possible approvals of multiple altcoin ETFs. In an X post, Daan Crypto Trades shed light on the potential deadlines of the exchange-traded funds next month. The message read,

“October is ETF month. Many final deadlines by mid October. We're expected to see approvals on ETFs from a variety of major altcoins like SOL, XRP, LTC, &DOGE. Non of the ones with the deadline in October were issued by Fidelity or Blackrock, which are the two major players in the Crypto ETF space. Regardless, might be something to watch out for in the weeks ahead.”

Ethereum to Lead the Q4 Crypto Cycle

Considering the performance of Ethereum, the last phase of 2025 is set to see an altcoin explosion with massive gains. This altcoin season is likely to be ruled by ETH. The token’s action in Oct, Nov, and Dec is bullish, marked by positive returns, compared to other months, especially the prevailing bearish September.

The cryptocurrency's performance in October has been variable, with an average growth of +7.00% and a median of +4.60%. It has seen significant increases, for example, a return of +42.8% in 2021, as well as a return of +7.77% in 2020. There have also been declines, such as -15.5% in 2018 and -16.7% in 2016.

November is typically referred to as a bullish time in general, and ETH has performed strongly in November. The average return is +6.93%, and the median is +1.42%. In 2024, the cryptocurrency had an impressive +47.4% return, and in 2020, it was +58.7%. Of course, there have been a few negative years, for instance, 17.6% in 2022 and -42.5% in 2018, but it mostly appears to be positive.

In December, the movement has been characterized as mixed, with an average gain of +6.58% and a median of -0.53%. It has also had large increases, such as a +70% return in 2017 and a +20.2% return in 2020. Overall, while it is still mixed, the data indicates positive trends for significant movement in the last quarter.