Bitcoin Price Prediction: The Level Bulls Can't Afford to Lose
Bitcoin is trading near $61,700 today, up more than 2% in the last 24 hours. The move comes after weak US jobs data pushed traders to bet on Fed rate cuts.
This bitcoin price prediction looks at price data, whale behavior, and realized cost levels to see if the uptrend can hold.
What is Bitcoin's price today?
BTC is changing hands around $61,733. Market cap sits near $1.23 trillion. Daily trading volume is close to $36.6 billion, though it dipped nearly 11% from the day before.
Circulating supply stands at 20.05 million BTC, out of a hard cap of 21 million. That leaves under a million coins left to mine.
Metric | Value |
Price | $61,733.68 |
24h Change | +2.72% |
Market Cap | $1.23 trillion |
24h Volume | $36.66 billion |
Circulating Supply | 20.05 million BTC |
Max Supply | 21 million BTC |
Are big holders buying Bitcoin again?
Recent heatmap data shows a shift in wallet behavior over the past 30 days. After months of selling during the price drop, accumulation is picking up again.
This buying activity is showing up across several wallet size groups, not just whales. That's usually a healthier sign than one big buyer moving the market alone.
Still, one heatmap alone doesn't confirm a trend reversal. It's a piece of the puzzle, not the whole picture.
Why are new Bitcoin whales sitting at a loss?
Wallets that started buying within the last 155 days now hold an average cost of $69,900. With BTC near $61,700, these newer whales are sitting roughly 14% underwater.
That matters because underwater buyers often sell into rallies just to break even. As BTC climbs back toward $70K, this group could add selling pressure along the way.
New Whale Data (<155 Days) | Value |
Average Cost Basis | $69,900 |
Current BTC Price | ~$61,700 |
Unrealized Loss | ~14% |
What price level keeps Bitcoin's uptrend alive?
Binance users' realized price sits at $57,070. As long as BTC trades above this level, the broader uptrend structure stays intact.
A drop below $57K would put a large group of holders underwater at once, which could trigger heavier selling.
Bullish Trigger Level | Price |
Binance Realized Price | $57,070 |
Status | Uptrend intact above this level |
Which Bitcoin holders are still in profit?
Not everyone is underwater. Miner whales carry an average cost basis of $53,400, while long-term holder whales sit even lower at $47,700.
These groups remain comfortably in profit even after the recent pullback. Their cost basis levels act as a deeper support zone if selling picks up.
Holder Type | Average Cost Basis |
Miner Whales | $53,400 |
Long-Term Holder Whales | $47,700 |
New Whales (<155D) | $69,900 |
What are Bitcoin's key support and resistance levels?
Any accurate bitcoin price forecast has to account for leverage in the derivatives market. Futures volume is near $58.8 billion, down almost 23% from the prior session. Open interest is holding steady around $46.4 billion.
As per CoinGlass data, Long positions are outweighing shorts on major exchanges like Binance and OKX, with long-to-short ratios above 1.6 in some cases. That shows traders leaning bullish for now.
But leverage cuts both ways. Liquidation data shows short sellers got hit hardest in the last 24 hours, losing over $63 million, while longs lost around $37 million.
Derivatives Data | Value |
Futures Volume (24h) | $58.78 billion |
Open Interest | $46.39 billion |
Options Volume | $2.77 billion |
Options Open Interest | $25.35 billion |
Binance Long/Short Ratio | 1.7556 |
OKX Long/Short Ratio | 1.63 |
24h Long Liquidations | $37.26 million |
24h Short Liquidations | $63.53 million |
Support sits near $58,000, a level BTC has bounced from more than once recently. Resistance is close to $65,000, the ceiling that's capped rallies for weeks.
Level | Price |
Current Price | $61,733 |
Major Support | $58,000 |
Realized Price Floor | $57,070 |
Resistance | $65,000 |
Next Target (Bull) | $73,000 |
Next Target (Bear) | $55,000 |
Could Bitcoin liquidations signal more volatility?
Across the wider crypto market, over 87,000 traders got liquidated in the past day. Total liquidations added up to $414.31 million.
The single biggest liquidation happened on Hyperliquid, an $18.20 million ETH-USD position. Heavy liquidations like this often come before sharp price swings in either direction.
Where could Bitcoin's price go next?
This bitcoin price prediction suggests the next move depends on which side gives up first. If BTC clears $65,000 on strong volume, the next test would likely be the $73,000 zone. A break below $58,000 could open the door toward $55,000, and eventually the $57,070 realized price floor.
Neither move is guaranteed. Bitcoin has spent weeks stuck in this range, and macro news like Fed decisions could easily tip the balance either way. Newer whales sitting underwater add a layer of hidden sell pressure that could cap rallies until their break-even is reached.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be treated as financial advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
