Bitcoin Price Faces a Double Test as US Jobs Data and Yields Loom

Bitcoin Price at Risk? Payroll Data Could Change the Short-Term Trend

Bitcoin Price climbed 3.08% to $86,445 in 24 hours, outpacing a broader market that gained 2.5%. The token has bounced hard from mid-September lows near $74,900 and now trades in the $85K–$86K range. That rally now meets two big tests: today's US Payroll data and Treasury yields above 5%. 

Yet the last two rallies hit the same walls. A hot jobs report in early September sent BTC under $80,000, and a 10-year yield above 5% later crashed about 4% off the rebound. 

At the same time, Citigroup has since lifted its $BTC target, and ETF money is returning. So, can the rally hold through both tests?

Bitcoin Price Today: ETF Inflows and a Short Squeeze Lift BTC Higher

Here is the latest Bitcoin price data as of October 1, 2026, by CoinMarketCap official:

• BTC price: $86,445.34, up 3.08% in 24 hours

• Market Cap: $1.73 trillion (+3.03%)

• 24-Hour Trading Volume: $38.45 billion (-1.4%)

• Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV): $1.81 trillion

• Treasury Holdings: 1.34 million $BTC

The wider crypto market is also green, up about 2.5%. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $102.7 million in net inflows on October 1, reversing prior outflows. Short liquidations reached $125.91 million in 24 hours, while $BTC's correlation stood at 71.27% with the S&P 500 and 57.07% with gold, according to CoinMarketCap. 

US Jobs Data Today: What the 89K Payroll Estimate Means for BTC Price

The US Payroll report lands at 8:30 AM ET. Forex Factory lists these readings:

• Non-farm payrolls: 89K expected, 162K previous

• Unemployment rate: 4.1% expected, 4.1% previous

• Average hourly earnings: 0.3% expected, 0.3% previous

After August's 162,000 gain, the Bitcoin price slid below $80,000. When July payrolls fell by 23,000, rate-hike hopes faded and $BTC rose above $65,200. The backdrop is firm. 

The Fed then raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%. Strong hiring keeps that hiking argument alive, while softer numbers ease it. 

Fed Officials Flag the Yield Surge: Why Bond Markets Matter to BTC

The 10-year yield crossed 5% on September 23, its first time there since 2007. A $70 billion five-year note sale then cleared at 5.033%, up from 4.393% at the previous auction, per the Wall Street Journal. 

Higher yields make bonds more appealing than volatile assets, which is why this Bitcoin update matters. 

Fed officials addressed the move on Bloomberg TV. They said yields have risen across maturities as investors rethink the outlook. 

Traders are pricing that stress. Polymarket odds put an 89% chance on the 10-year touching 5.3% before 2027, up 21 points in a week after peaking at 92%.

How Rising Treasury Yields and Jobs Data Hit BTC Price in September

Bitcoin price in September followed a clear pattern:

• Sept 4: August payrolls beat estimates, and BTC slid below $80,000.

• Sept 15–16: The Fed hiked, and $BTC dipped to roughly $75,000.

• Sept 23: The 10-year yield topped 5% for the first time since 2007, and BTC fell from near $87,300 to about $83,500.

Higher yields make bonds more appealing next to volatile assets. The 10-year closed September 30 at 5.29%, with a 41 basis point gap over the 2-year.

What Comes Next: Citigroup Lifts Bitcoin Price Target to $113,000 

In crypto news today, Citigroup is the loudest bullish voice on the Bitcoin price. Bloomberg analyst Walter raised the 12-month $BTC target on October 1:

• Old target: $82,000

• New target: $113,000

• Reason: returning ETF demand, with $5 billion of inflows modeled over the next year

The bank has some data on its side. US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $6.34 billion in the third quarter, including $3.52 billion in August, according to SoSoValue.

Analyst Ted Pillows sees a nearer line. He said BTC almost touched $87,000, and that a weekly close above $87,500 with strong spot demand could push it toward its January 2026 highs. Both calls are views, not guarantees.

For this Bitcoin crypto news story, the verdict is simple: soft data could keep those targets in play, while a hot jobs print and rising yields could test the Bitcoin price again.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Crypto markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.