US Jobs Data Today Puts Bitcoin at Risk as Fed Hike Fears Linger
Bitcoin Price Faces a Make-or-Break Moment as US Jobs Data Approaches
The US Non-farm payrolls change data today lands at 8:30 AM ET, and Bitcoin enters the release at $85,928 , up 2.12% in 24 hours. The gain outpaced a broader crypto market that rose 1.89%, and it follows Citigroup's decision to lift its 12-month Bitcoin target to $113,000.
Even so, one labor report can undo a lot. In early September, a stronger-than-estimated payroll print sent BTC price back under $80,000 as per CoinMarketCap Data.
Three readings at 8:30 AM ET or 6:00 PM IST decide how this morning plays out: payrolls, the unemployment rate and wage growth.
Non-Farm Employment Change Today: What the 89K Estimate Means for BTC
Non-Farm Employment Change is the headline line of US Jobs Data Today. The Forex Factory calendar lists three readings for the 8:30 AM ET slot:
Non-farm payrolls: consensus estimate 89K, previous 162K
Unemployment rate: estimate 4.1%, previous 4.1%
Average hourly earnings: estimate 0.3% m/m, previous 0.3%
The gap between 89K and 162K is wide, so the room for a surprise is large.
Factory Orders and a speech by FOMC member Logan follow at 10:00 AM ET. The labor backdrop going in is firm.
Weekly jobless claims, released Thursday, fell to 197,000, the lowest since mid-July. The Fed also raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16.
US Jobs Data Today: Why Strong Payrolls Can Pressure Bitcoin Prices
The chain is easy to follow. A strong Non-Farm Employment Change print and firm wages keep inflation worries alive, which supports higher rates. Higher rates push up Treasury yields and the dollar, and that drains appetite for risk assets such as BTC.
Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said inflation remains too high, with upside risks, and that the next rate move may take more time.
History backs the pattern. After August's 162,000 gain, BTC slid below $80,000. When July payrolls fell by 23,000, BTC jumped above $65,200 as hike odds dropped.
Traders on X apply the same rule to the jobless rate: a reading above 4.1% eases rate pressure, while one below adds to it.
Bitcoin Price Today: BTC Levels Before the Report
Ahead of US Jobs Data change today, BTC price data from the CoinMarketCap’s Oct 2 update frames the setup:
Current price: $85,928.14, up 2.12% in 24 hours
24-Hour Trading Volume: $38.71 billion (+3.87%)
Market Cap: $1.72 trillion (+2.13%)
Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV): $1.8 trillion
Support: $84,432
Market dominance: 59.15%
Fear & Greed Index: 70 (Greed)
BTC shows an 80% correlation with the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), so it reacts to the same macro shocks that move small-cap stocks.
Citigroup's $113,000 Target and ETF Inflows Offer Bitcoin Some Cushion
Source: X Official (Bloomberg Analyst Walter)
Citigroup raised its 12-month Bitcoin target on October 1 from $82,000 to $113,000, citing returning ETF demand and modeling $5 billion of inflows over the next year.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $6.34 billion in the third quarter, including $3.52 billion in August as per SoSo Value data. Leverage still adds fuel to sharp moves, though. Thirty-day liquidations reached $315.31 million, with shorts at $200.56 million against $114.75 million for longs.
US Jobs Data Today is the first real test of that rally. A payroll figure far above 89K with firm wages feeds the rate-hike argument, while a soft one with a higher jobless rate takes pressure off. The lines at $84,432 and $87,363 now frame how the market answers.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Crypto markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
