Arthur Hayes Warns: OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX IPO Could Crash Bitcoin

Oil Prices, AI IPOs, BTC: Why Arthur Is Preparing for Market Storm

Arthur Hayes is one of crypto's most-watched voices. The BitMEX co-founder just dropped a major essay called "Reality Test" — and it's turning heads fast. He believes an AI bubble correction is coming. Rising oil prices and three massive IPOs could trigger the chaos. Bitcoin may fall first. But what happens next could surprise you.

The Warning Nobody Wants to Hear

Arthur Hayes has a message for crypto investors. It's not comfortable. The BitMEX co-founder says a major correction may be coming — and Bitcoin could take the first hit. But here's the twist that makes this story worth reading to the end.

Who Is Arthur Hayes, and Why Should You Care?

He co-founded BitMEX, one of the largest crypto derivatives exchanges in the world. His fund, Maelstrom, manages serious money. When he shifts his portfolio, markets pay attention.

Last week, Maelstrom made big moves. They sold four altcoins — HYPE, NEAR, WLD, and ZEC. That's a clear sign Hayes sees trouble ahead.

Source:  CryptoHayes X

The AI Bubble: Is It About to Pop?

He believes the AI sector is dangerously overheated. Three major IPOs — from OpenAI, Anthropic IPO, and SpaceX — could trigger a market correction.

Here's why IPOs matter. When big companies go public, investors pull cash from existing markets. That selling pressure can crash asset prices fast.

Rising oil prices add another layer of risk. Hayes calls oil the "most important variable" in all investing. Energy costs affect everything — tech companies, AI data centers, and crypto mining.

His new essay, "Reality Test," lays this out clearly. He asks one sharp question: does the price of oil actually matter anymore? His answer is yes — and markets are ignoring it.

So Why Would Bitcoin Fall First?

Bitcoin (BTC) is the most liquid crypto asset. When fear hits markets, investors sell what they can sell quickly. Bitcoin is always first on that list.

Hayes says Bitcoin may fall before the next liquidity cycle begins. A liquidity cycle is when central banks pump money into the economy. That cash eventually flows into risk assets like crypto.

The pattern isn't new. Bitcoin dropped hard in early 2020. Then it surged over 1,000% in the following cycle. Hayes thinks history could repeat — but the dip comes first.

Source: BSCN News X

What Is Maelstrom Doing Right Now?

The fund kept two assets: Bitcoin and Ethereum. Everything else got sold. That's a very concentrated bet on the two biggest cryptocurrencies only.

Hayes also confirmed Maelstrom may use derivatives for short positions. A short position means betting that an asset's price will fall. It's a defensive move — protecting against downside risk. This is not panic selling. It's preparation.

The Oil Price Nobody Is Talking About

BitMex Co-founder "Reality Test" essay focuses heavily on energy. He believes rising oil prices will expose weak spots in the AI investment boom.

AI data centers use enormous amounts of electricity. Higher energy costs shrink profit margins fast. If investors start questioning AI profits, the entire tech rally could unwind quickly. Hayes believes this could happen between now and September 2025.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Today

BTC is trading at $62,874.98 today, down 0.13% in the last 24 hours. The price hit a high of $63,478 and a low of $62,410. Market cap stands at $1.25 trillion. Volume reached $34.46 billion. BTC peaked near $83,000 in May. It has since dropped nearly 24%. Is this the dip smart investors have been waiting for?

Source; CoinMarketCap

Why This News Matters To Investors?

Arthur isn't a random analyst. He manages real money and moves markets. When Maelstrom sells four altcoins in one week, that's a signal — not noise. If his oil thesis proves right, portfolios could take serious damage fast. Knowing this early gives you time to prepare, not panic.

Conclusion

Arthur isn't calling for a crypto death. He's calling for a reset. Maelstrom sold altcoins and held Bitcoin and Ethereum for a reason. The next liquidity wave could still lift crypto — but patience may be the most valuable asset right now.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.