Indonesia Blocks Polymarket Over Prabowo Bet — Gambling Ban Expands?
What happens when a prediction market lets users bet on whether a sitting president will lose power—in a country where gambling is strictly illegal?
Indonesia just answered that question. Indonesia blocks Polymarket—the crypto-based prediction platform—after its Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs described it as an "online gambling site disguised as a prediction market" on May 25, 2026. The block was swift, coordinated, and has global implications for every prediction market platform operating today.
Source: X Account
The trigger was a single contract.
On May 21, 2026, a Polymarket contract was created in which users could bet on whether or not President Prabowo Subianto would resign before the end of his October 2029 term. The market traded more than $46,000 in volume across three exit date contracts: May 31, June 30 and Dec. 31, 2026. Traders were pricing in a 1%, 2% and 18% chance of Prabowo’s early exit.
It promoted the contract on X, which accelerated its spread across Indonesian social media and news publications — and accelerated government action.
Indonesia's Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs, known locally as Komdigi, blocked Polymarket on May 22, 2026. Alexander Sabar, Director General of Digital Space Supervision at Komdigi, was direct: "The government will not allow any form of online gambling in Indonesia."
The authorities stated that the use of crypto or blockchain does not alter the classification of platforms that let users bet on uncertain outcomes, and they remain gambling products under Indonesian law irrespective of their technical structure.
The ministry went further. The government said it would also track social media accounts promoting the platform — a notable escalation beyond simply blocking the website itself.
This isn’t Indonesia’s first big digital crackdown. Since October 2024, authorities have frozen over 33,000 bank accounts in a wider crackdown on online betting, and blocked some 3.4 million gambling-related websites.
Despite the national ban, online gambling remains a massive problem in the country. Transactions linked to online gambling totaled approximately 286 trillion rupiah—roughly $16 billion—in 2025, according to Indonesia's Financial Transaction Reports and Analysis Center.
Indonesia blocks Polymarket — but it is far from alone in doing so.
The Indonesian ministry confirmed that Singapore, Brazil, and India have all blocked Polymarket, while Taiwan, Thailand, China, and Japan have imposed access restrictions under local law. It is also blocked in Ukraine, with no legal path for it to return.
India's Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology issued a formal blocking order against Polymarket on May 21, 2026—just one day before Indonesia's action—classifying the platform as prohibited online money gaming under India's gaming legislation. It was followed immediately by a separate order against Kalshi, the US-regulated prediction exchange.
As of mid-2026, Polymarket is restricted or banned in more than 33 jurisdictions, with regulatory action in the space sharply accelerating this year. The reasons fall into three categories: bans on unlicensed gambling, bans on betting on political events and bans that protect state betting monopolies.
The order could extend to other prediction market platforms if Indonesian regulators determine that they allow users to wager money on uncertain real-world events — a definition broad enough to cover most competitors in the space
Polymarket is separately seeking regulatory approval in Japan by 2030, where strict gambling rules currently limit most forms of betting outside state-sanctioned activities.
The fact that Indonesia and India’s Polymarket actions happened at the same time, a day apart, suggests something more than national enforcement. Major Asian jurisdictions are now treating crypto-based prediction markets the same as traditional online casinos, regardless of their blockchain infrastructure, say regulatory analysts monitoring the trend.
The core regulatory argument gaining traction globally is straightforward: the technical delivery mechanism—blockchain versus a traditional website—does not change the fundamental nature of wagering on uncertain outcomes. Indonesian authorities made this explicit. Indian authorities made this explicit. Both cited public protection — particularly of younger digital users — as justification.
For it and Kalshi, the strategic implications are significant. The addressable market for prediction markets in Asia—home to over 4 billion people—is shrinking faster than any new jurisdiction can be opened. Polymarket's Japan 2030 target may represent the last realistic entry point into a major Asian market, and that timeline itself remains uncertain.
The political dimension adds another layer. Contracts that allow users to bet on heads of state leaving power are uniquely provocative for governments — regardless of the implied probabilities. The Prabowo contract's 18% December probability was enough to trigger a national block. That precedent will not be lost on other governments watching the space.
YMYL Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute legal financial or investment advice.
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