Bitcoin Surges as Traders Await the Fed Minutes: What Next For BTC?
Bitcoin climbed past $64,000 at the time of writing even as the S&P 500 slipped 0.52%. The move came just hours before the Federal Reserve releases minutes from its July meeting. Traders are watching closely to see what the central bank's tone might mean for risk assets like Bitcoin.
The rally has caught attention because stocks and crypto usually move together. This time, they didn't. That gap is raising questions about what happens next for BTC price action this week.
What Is Driving Bitcoin's Price This Week?
Several events are lining up at once. The Fed will publish minutes from its July 28-29 meeting on August 19. That meeting held rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75%, but the vote was not unanimous. Three members wanted a 25-basis-point hike instead.
As per the FED tool watch, markets are pricing September rate hike odds at close to 36.60%. If the minutes show a more hawkish tone, that number could rise. A hawkish surprise would likely pressure both stocks and BTC together.
A softer, more balanced tone could do the opposite. If the Fed focuses on a cooling labor market instead of inflation, that may support a rebound in risk assets.
Other events are also on deck. The Coinbase and Circle USDC partnership enters a new three-year term on August 18. Starting August 23, the EU will block transactions with 14 named crypto platforms. Economic data including jobless claims and PMI figures are also due this week.
Why Did Bitcoin Rise While Stocks Fell?
Bitcoin gained roughly 2% this session, moving from near $62,800 over the weekend to above $64,000. Meanwhile, equities absorbed some profit-taking pressure.
Part of the explanation is capital rotation. Some traders appear to be shifting money into Bitcoin while trimming stock exposure. Others may simply be betting the Fed minutes won't sound too hawkish.
Bitcoin's link to stocks has been inconsistent through 2026. On this occasion, it behaved more like a separate asset than a mirror of equities.
Bitcoin ETF and Market Liquidity Snapshot
Bitfinex Alpha flagged some signs of a mid-to-late bear market phase for BTC. Price is currently sitting between the long-term realized price of $52,699 and the short-term holder realized price of $67,176.
Spot BTC ETFs saw $385.2 million in net outflows over the past week. Stablecoin supply has also dropped about 4.5% from its May peak, now sitting near $300.7 billion.
Separately, daily total net inflow for BTC ETFs was reported at $137.32 million, a sign that flows can still swing positive even during a weaker liquidity stretch.
Onchain transfer activity has slowed to a seven-year low. Spot trading volume has fallen to levels not seen since early 2019. These are signs that overall market participation remains thin right now.
Metric | Level |
Current BTC Price | ~$64,000 |
Long-Term Realized Price | $52,699 |
Short-Term Holder Realized Price | $67,176 |
Realized Price Median (2-week support) | ~$63,200 |
June 2026 Low | $57,803 |
Weekly ETF Net Outflows | $385.2M |
Daily ETF Net Inflow (latest) | $137.32M |
Stablecoin Supply | $300.7B |
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Key Levels to Watch
On the 4-hour chart, $BTC looks to be recovering inside a wider descending channel. Price bounced off the $62,700 to $63,000 zone and has since reclaimed the 20, 50, 100, and 200 EMAs.
The RSI has moved up to around 63, pointing to firmer short-term momentum.
The main resistance sits at the descending trendline between $64,600 and $64,900. A confirmed 4-hour close above that zone could open a path toward $65,200, then $65,800, and potentially $66,400 to $66,800.
If the asset gets rejected near $64,600 to $64,900 and slips below $63,600, a pullback toward $63,000 and $62,400 becomes more likely.
The setup remains cautiously bullish for now, with $64,900 marking the breakout trigger and $63,600 as the level bulls need to defend. This is a technical read, not a guaranteed outcome, and confirmation from further 4-hour closes still matters.
What Happens If the Fed Minutes Are Hawkish?
A hawkish tone from the FOMC minutes, especially language pointing to persistent inflation, could push September hike odds higher. That would likely weigh on both tech stocks and Bitcoin at the same time.
Rate-sensitive sectors tend to react first. Bitcoin has shown volatile reactions to shifting Fed expectations in the past, so a sharp move either way would not be unusual this week.
Strategy and Institutional Bitcoin Holdings
Strategy added $150 million to its USD reserve and repurchased $132 million of STRC, based on recent disclosures. As of August 16, the company reported holding 840,447 BTC alongside a $4.8 billion USD reserve.
Jane Street also disclosed more than $1 billion in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holdings as of June 30. About $828 million of that was tied to BlackRock's IBIT, with the rest spread across funds like Fidelity's FBTC and Grayscale's GBTC. These are ETF share holdings, not direct Bitcoin ownership.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile and can result in significant losses. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
