SpaceX Stock Hits New Low Ahead of Earnings and Share Unlock

SpaceX stock (SPCX) had a rough week. Shares fell 3.4% on Friday to close at $108.37. For the week, the stock dropped nearly 5.8%.

That puts SpaceX stock about 30% below its $150 IPO price from last month. It is also down roughly 50% from its all-time high of $225.64, set back in June.

The drop has wiped out more than $1.5 trillion in market value since that peak. For context, that lost value alone is bigger than Tesla's entire market cap.

Why is SpaceX stock falling right now?

Two big events are pressuring the stock.

First, SpaceX reports its second-quarter earnings on August 4. This will be the company's first earnings report as a public firm.

Second, a lockup expiration hits on August 6. That could free up to 20% of shares for sale. Many traders worry this extra supply will push the price down further.

On Friday, the stock touched an intraday low of $107.01. The 52-week range now sits between $107.01 and $225.64. Trading volume was 54.87 million shares, well below the average of 111.5 million.

What are analysts saying about SpaceX stock?

Wall Street is split, but leans positive on paper.

Morgan Stanley keeps an "Overweight" rating. Analyst Adam Jonas argues that at current prices, the market is valuing SpaceX's AI business at basically zero.

That AI business includes xAI's computing infrastructure, the Grok model, and X platform's ad and subscription revenue.

A total of 30 analysts have covered SpaceX in the past three months. The consensus rating is "Moderate Buy," with an average price target of $239.04. The high target is $800, and the low is $115.

Right now, SPCX stock trades above every single analyst's target, including the lowest one.

SpaceX stock technical levels to watch

Price action shows the stock bouncing off its recent low near $107.

The first hurdle is resistance between $111 and $115, where several moving averages cluster together.

A break above that zone could open the door to the Fibonacci 0.236 level at $122.44. From there, the $132 to $140 range becomes possible.

If the rebound fails to clear resistance, traders may treat it as just a pause in the downtrend, not a real recovery.

On the downside, a break below $100 would be a bad sign. That psychological level could open the path toward $90 or even $80 if selling picks up speed.

Starship progress adds a wildcard

SpaceX's 13th Starship test flight did not land the booster perfectly. But it hit other key goals.

The mission deployed next-generation Starlink V3 satellites, restarted an engine in orbit, and completed its smoothest ocean splashdown so far.

Morgan Stanley says the next real catalyst would be flight 14, if the stock can catch the upper stage with the launch tower.

Crypto market activity around SPCX

Derivatives desks are also active around SPCX. Binance leads trading volume at $602.12 million, followed by OKX at $187.06 million.

Over the past 24 hours, total liquidations reached $3.69 million, with shorts making up the larger share on some venues. Long-short ratios on Binance and OKX both favor longs, suggesting many traders are still betting on a bounce.

What could move SpaceX stock next

The August 4 earnings report is the near-term event to watch. Proof that the AI segment can turn a real profit could shift sentiment fast.

The lockup expiration two days later adds uncertainty, since more shares hitting the market can pressure price even if the business is doing fine.

No one can say for sure where SpaceX stock goes from here. But the gap between the stock price and analyst targets is unusually wide right now.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Stock prices, including SPCX stock, are volatile and can move sharply in either direction. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.