SpaceX Stock Falls as Musk Predicts AI 'Pole Position' Within 6 Months

SpaceX stock fell to $148.03 on September 24, extending a volatile stretch for the newly listed shares. The decline came as investors weighed the stock's break below the closely watched $150 level, an upcoming insider lockup expiration, and broader questions around SpaceX's next phase of growth.

At the same time, Elon Musk is putting a major spotlight on SpaceX's artificial intelligence ambitions. Musk has said SpaceX could reach AI "pole position" within about six months if its rate of improvement remains strong.

The comment adds a new AI angle to the SpaceX story, which investors have increasingly tied to Starlink, orbital computing, and the company's broader technology ambitions.

For traders, the immediate focus remains on whether SPCX can reclaim $150.78, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, after breaking below a rising-wedge pattern.

If the breakdown holds, chart-based support levels around $138 to $140 and $133.34 become important areas to watch.

Why is SpaceX stock down today?

SpaceX stock closed at $148.03 on September 24, down 0.22%, after falling more than 4% in the previous session and breaking below the $150 level.

SPCX traded between $145.88 and $149.00 during the session, with volume exceeding 72 million shares.

Two factors are currently drawing investor attention.

First, SpaceX is shifting greater attention toward its Starship system as it develops the next generation of its launch business. That transition creates questions around execution and the pace at which Starship can contribute commercially.

Second, an insider lockup expiration is approaching. Reports indicate that roughly 28% of restricted shares could become eligible for trading, potentially increasing the amount of stock available in the market.

Elon Musk predicts SpaceX AI could reach "pole position"

Musk has also placed SpaceX's AI ambitions in the spotlight.

In a recent post on X, Musk said SpaceX's AI efforts are only three years old, compared with six years for Anthropic and ten years for OpenAI. 

Despite the shorter track record, he argued that the company's rate of improvement, what he called its "second derivative," could allow it to reach "pole position" in roughly six months.

Here, "pole position" refers to reaching a leading position in the AI race. Musk's six-month timeframe is his own projection, not a confirmed product launch date or independently established forecast.

Musk also pushed back on the idea that more intelligence always matters, saying that once a model exceeds what a task actually needs, extra intelligence adds little value.

He pointed to hardware as SpaceX's real edge, arguing that bringing massive compute online quickly is difficult and that SpaceX has shown it can do this well.

This makes AI an increasingly important part of the broader SpaceX investment story, alongside Starlink and the company's launch businesses.

The financial weight behind that story includes the deal SpaceX struck to lease compute capacity to Anthropic, which is expected to bring in billions in annual revenue.

Meta just passed SpaceX in market value

The AI story comes as Meta has moved ahead of SpaceX in market value. Meta Platforms overtook SpaceX to become the seventh-largest public company in the world.

At Thursday's close, Meta's market cap stood near $1.72 trillion, ahead of SpaceX's roughly $1.14 trillion to $1.95 trillion range depending on the pricing source used. Meta shares jumped 4.5% that day alone and closed at $777.59.

The driver behind Meta's rally is Muse, its new personal AI agent. Muse launched on September 8 and shot to the number one spot on both the Apple App Store and Google Play in the United States within days.

Meta stock has climbed roughly 36% in September, putting it on pace for its best month since July 2013. The company is now closing in on the $2 trillion valuation club.

Analysts have taken notice. Evercore's Mark Mahaney said Muse could reach 100 million users within six to twelve months. Wells Fargo raised its Meta price target to $796 from $640 after the launch.

Meanwhile, SpaceX shares have fallen about 8% from their first-day closing price back in June. Meta's market-value move is relevant to SpaceX because it highlights how quickly valuations can shift when investors place greater weight on AI-related growth opportunities.

What is the SPCX chart telling traders?

From a technical perspective, SPCX appears to be breaking below a rising-wedge pattern, which traders commonly interpret as a potential bearish signal.

The key Fibonacci level is the 0.382 retracement at $150.78. With the stock trading below that level, traders may watch whether the breakdown continues or whether price manages to reclaim the zone.

Here is how the possible downside levels stack up if the breakdown continues:

If SPCX remains below $150.78 and the broken wedge boundary, the bearish technical setup remains in focus. A sustained move back above $150.78 would change the chart structure and make the breakdown less clear.

Does Wall Street still like SpaceX stock?

Yes, and by a wide margin. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas set a $300 price target on SpaceX, the highest among major banks covering the stock, with the thesis emphasizing Starlink and orbital computing as long-term growth drivers.

Morgan Stanley's forecast points to SpaceX revenue reaching $319 billion by 2030 and $3.3 trillion by 2040. These are analyst estimates rather than guaranteed outcomes, and actual results could differ significantly.

Six Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and UBS, currently rate SpaceX a buy, though the stock's short-term path remains volatile as it works through post-IPO growing pains.

SpaceX stock key numbers at a glance

SpaceX vs. OpenAI and Anthropic

Musk has acknowledged that SpaceX is still relatively new to AI compared with established players.

He has described Anthropic as currently ahead, while arguing that SpaceX's rate of improvement could allow it to move into a leading position in the coming months.

That distinction is important: Musk's statement is a forward-looking prediction, not a claim that SpaceX currently leads the AI industry.

What could move SpaceX stock next?

Several catalysts could influence SPCX in the near term:

• Insider lockup expiration: New shares becoming tradable could affect supply and trading activity.

• Starship progress: Commercial and technical milestones could influence expectations for SpaceX's launch business.

• Starlink growth: Revenue and cash-flow developments remain important to the company's valuation story.

• AI infrastructure: Progress in SpaceX's AI and orbital-computing ambitions, including Musk's six-month "pole position" timeline, could become increasingly relevant to investors.

• Technical levels: Traders may focus on $150.78 resistance and the $138 to $140 and $133.34 support areas.

For now, most analysts expect the stock to consolidate somewhere between $130 and $155 while the market works through these questions.

Bottom line

SpaceX stock is facing a mix of near-term technical pressure and longer-term growth expectations. The immediate chart setup centers on the break below the rising wedge and the $150.78 Fibonacci level, while Musk's six-month AI "pole position" prediction adds a separate catalyst for investors to monitor.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Stock prices, price targets, and market data are subject to change and may not reflect real-time figures at the time of reading. Investing in stocks carries risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.