Prediction Market Ban: Why US Election Staff Face New Trading Rules

Prediction Market Ban: Why Are Election Workers Facing New Limits?

With midterms less than two months away, a new kind of prediction market ban is starting to take shape at the local level. 

Election officials in two separate US counties have moved to stop their own employees from trading on contracts tied to the very races and events they help oversee, and the reasoning behind it comes down to one simple worry: insider knowledge turning into personal profit.

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What Actually Changed in Delaware County

According to CNBC's reporting, Delaware County, Pennsylvania, just outside Philadelphia, has updated the oath its election workers already take. 

That oath previously barred staff from betting on election outcomes directly, but it now explicitly folds in prediction market contracts too. This change covers roughly 2,200 employees. 

Delaware County's elections director, James Allen, put it bluntly, saying prediction markets amount to gambling regardless of how the platforms themselves describe it, and that he doesn't want them undermining faith in local elections.

Maricopa County Goes Even Broader

Arizona Maricopa County's took a wider approach. A resolution adopted this July bans roughly 13,000 county employees from trading on prediction contracts tied to non-public information they might access through their jobs, and it isn't limited to elections. 

The rule also covers contracts related to court cases and weather events. 

This Prediction Market Ban followed shortly after Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs signed an executive order restricting state workers from using nonpublic information to trade on these same kinds of markets, giving the county's resolution a clear policy foundation to build on.

Why This Is Happening Now

Here's a quick side-by-side of what each county actually did:

Both measures share the same underlying goal: keeping public trust intact. 

Officials in both counties have said the point isn't that anyone has actually been caught profiting; it's about closing the door before that ever becomes a real problem. 

As it stands, there's no evidence so far that any local election staff have made money trading on these markets.

The Bigger Concern Behind the Bans

The worry driving this prediction market ban isn't hypothetical paranoia; it's about preventing a very specific kind of conflict of interest. 

Election staff often have early access to information, like turnout numbers, ballot counts, or processing delays, well before the general public does. 

If that same staff could freely trade contracts betting on election outcomes, even the appearance of insider trading could seriously damage public confidence in the results themselves. 

A few reasons officials gave for acting now:

• Protecting the integrity of the electoral process from even the perception of manipulation

• Preventing employees from using privileged information for personal financial gain

• Getting ahead of the issue before the 2026 midterms, rather than reacting after something goes wrong

What This Means Going Forward

This kind of prediction market ban at the county level is a fairly new development, and it raises an obvious question: will other counties follow suit before November? Given how quickly prediction markets have grown in popularity and trading volume this year, it wouldn't be surprising to see more local governments introduce similar restrictions on their own election and public-sector staff in the coming weeks, especially as scrutiny around these platforms continues to build heading into the midterms.

Conclusion

Delaware County and Maricopa County have both taken concrete steps to keep their employees out of prediction markets tied to elections and other sensitive information, covering more than 15,000 workers combined between the two jurisdictions. 

While no wrongdoing has actually been uncovered yet, officials are treating this as a preventative move, one meant to protect public trust in elections before any real controversy has the chance to take root.

Disclaimer

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