After the Lockup, SpaceX Stock Jumps 15.83%: What's Next for SPCX?

SpaceX stock is having a wild first summer as a public company. Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp.

(SPCX) jumped 15.83% on Friday, August 7, closing at $133.11. The move came right after a huge lockup expiry sent hundreds of millions of new shares into the market.

Normally, a flood of new shares hitting the market pushes a stock price down. That is not what happened here.

Traders now want to know if SPCX can keep climbing, or if this is a short-lived bounce before more selling pressure arrives.

Why Did SpaceX Stock Jump This Week?

Two big events landed on the same day. On Thursday, August 6, roughly 911.5 million insider shares became eligible to trade for the first time since SpaceX's June 12 IPO.

That is more than the entire public float SpaceX had before. Many traders expected the stock to fall as early investors and employees cashed out.

Instead, the stock held up. The fact that insiders did not dump their shares right away was read by the market as a vote of confidence in the company.

On the same day, SpaceX and Tesla announced a joint $16.8 billion investment in Terafab, a semiconductor plant planned for Grimes County, Texas.

The facility is meant to produce chips for Optimus robots, Cybercabs, and SpaceX's planned space-based data centers, and is expected to bring at least 3,000 jobs to the area.

The announcement gave investors a fresh growth story to focus on right as the lockup fear faded.

Are SpaceX's Q2 Earnings Supporting the Rally?

SpaceX's first earnings report as a public company, released August 4, also helped. Revenue came in at $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year and above analyst estimates of $6.81 billion.

Adjusted EBITDA jumped 191% to $3.5 billion. The company still posted a net loss of $541 million, reflecting heavy spending on Starship, Starlink, and its newer AI segment.

Wall Street has stayed mostly upbeat. Investing.com data shows an average 12-month price target near $231, with 28 analysts rating the stock a buy against 2 sell ratings. Argus recently raised its rating to buy with a $160 price target.

Cathie Wood's Ark Invest has also been a steady buyer through the stock's swings, adding to its SPCX position several times since the June IPO, including fresh purchases in the days around this week's earnings and lockup news.

SPCX Lockup Schedule: What Happens Next

The August 6 unlock was only the first step. SpaceX built a staggered lockup schedule instead of releasing everything at once, and more tranches are coming before the year is out.

*Cumulative figures assume only the confirmed 20% first tranche plus the 7% employee RSU steps; they come from a publicly discussed, estimated lockup timeline and are subject to change, since SpaceX has not confirmed every later step publicly.

A bonus early release, worth an extra 10% of the pool on top of the 20%, was only available if SPCX traded 30% above its $135 IPO price for 5 of 10 days before Q2 earnings. That condition was not met, so this extra tranche did not fire on August 6.

Because so much of SpaceX's roughly 13.2 billion shares are still locked up, each future date on this table is a real test for the stock. Supply pressure does not disappear just because the first unlock went smoothly.

SpaceX Stock Price Prediction: Key Levels to Watch

Chart watchers have flagged a triple bottom or W-bottom pattern for SPCX, with the stock testing the $105 to $110 zone three times before this week's bounce. Repeated tests of the same floor often get read as a sign that sellers are running out of steam.

A close and hold above the $135 IPO price would be an important signal for bulls, since it would mean the stock has fully worked through Friday's supply shock. A drop back under $118 to $120 would put the recent double bottom back in play.

What Could Happen Next for SPCX?

The bullish case rests on the idea that the market already absorbed the biggest single unlock event and still went up. If demand holds and Terafab keeps generating headlines, some traders see room toward the $155 to $160 zone, with Wall Street's average target sitting even higher near $231.

The cautious case points to the calendar. More lockup tranches are due through October, November, and December, and each one adds fresh supply at a time when SpaceX is still burning cash on Starship, Starlink, and its AI buildout.

Some traders on social media have also warned that early insiders, who bought in at a much lower cost basis, could use rallies like this one to sell into strength rather than confirm a bottom. That view is a theory some traders hold, not a confirmed fact, and it cuts against the more bullish reading of Friday's move.

Whether SPCX builds a real base above $130 or fades back toward its 52-week low will likely come down to how the next earnings-linked unlock in late October or early November plays out.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Past performance and chart patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.