SpaceX stock rebounds off record low as investors eye Aug. 6 lockup

SpaceX Stock is trying to find its footing after a rough July. Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX) touched an all-time low of $107.01 this week before climbing back above $116.

The bounce comes right before two big dates. SpaceX reports second quarter earnings on August 4, and a share lockup expires on August 6, when up to 20% of total shares could become eligible for sale.

Traders are watching to see if this recovery holds, or if it fades like earlier bounces this summer.

Why Is SpaceX Stock Falling in 2026?

SPCX has dropped nearly 22% from its $150 IPO price last month. It is also down 52% from its record high of $225.64, hit soon after its market debut.

Tesla has fallen too. Together, the two Elon Musk-linked stocks have lost about $1.5 trillion in combined value since mid-June, as traders pull back from AI-linked names across the board.

Analyst Peter Schiff said the SpaceX IPO may have marked the top of the AI trade. He added that AI is real, but overhyped stocks still have room to fall.

Is SpaceX Stock a Good Buy Right Now?

Not everyone is bearish. Raymond James reiterated a strong buy rating on July 27, with an $800 price target on SPCX.

That target is bold. It implies a market cap above $10 trillion, more than double what Apple or Nvidia are worth today, on a model that sees sales growing from $38.5 billion this year to $837 billion by 2031.

SPCX already trades near 40 times forward sales, a rich multiple even for a fast-growing company.

CNBC's Jim Cramer struck a more careful tone. He said it is too soon to buy the dip and told investors to wait for Thursday's lockup expiration first.

There are bigger valuation questions too. SpaceX's own roadshow prospectus puts its addressable market at $28 trillion, at a time when global GDP sits under $120 trillion.

Musk also has a mixed track record on timelines. He once predicted one million robotaxis on the road by the end of 2020, and Tesla's Cybertruck launch was pushed back for years. xAI, the unit tied to much of that addressable market, is still burning cash, even as Starlink stays profitable.

What Are SpaceX Stock's Key Support and Resistance Levels?

The daily chart shows a bullish engulfing candle after a long slide, along with a breakout from a falling wedge pattern. Both point to fading selling pressure.

Price is trading above the 20 EMA but below the 50 EMA, while the 100 and 200 EMA still sit overhead as resistance. RSI has moved back above 50, a sign of improving momentum.

If buyers push SPCX above the 50 EMA, the chart points to next targets near $127 to $135, then $146, which lines up closely with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level. Losing the wedge breakout zone would weaken this setup.

Who Is Buying SpaceX Stock After the Drop?

Cathie Wood's ARK Invest kept buying into the drop. On July 28, ARK added 70,773 SPCX shares and 26,920 Tesla shares to its ARKK fund.

That suggests some fund managers see value in the pullback, even as short-term sentiment stays shaky.

What's Next for SPCX?

Two dates matter most: earnings on August 4 and the lockup expiration on August 6. That unlock could add fresh selling pressure if early holders decide to cash out.

SpaceX has leaned on Starship and rocket reuse as its main cost edge, with CFO Bret Johnsen calling reuse the real unlock behind lower launch costs. The next milestone to watch is an attempt to catch Starship with the launch tower, a step toward full reusability.

Whether SPCX builds on this bounce or slips back toward its lows may come down to how these two events play out.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Stock prices are volatile and can move sharply in either direction. Past performance and analyst price targets do not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and speak with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.