Bitcoin BTC Drops Below $80K After Jobs Surge Complicates Fed Outlook

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Holds Near $79.5K as Fed Rate Bets Return

Bitcoin dropped nearly 3% this week after a surprise jobs report made traders think again about a Federal Reserve rate hike. The pullback pushed the token away from its recent run above $80,000 and back toward the $79,500 zone.

The move came fast. Non-farm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, beating every forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Unemployment stayed steady at 4.1%. That sent bond yields and the dollar higher, and crypto felt the pressure right away.

The surprise report shifted Fed rate hike odds to 59.4% for a hike versus 40.6% for no change, adding to the uncertainty ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting.

These macro and network pressures are feeding Bitcoin's volatility as traders wait for clearer signals.

Why did Bitcoin price drop today?

BTC fell as much as 1.3% intraday, touching $79,660 at one point. It had just reclaimed $80,000 on Thursday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller hinted he could support holding rates steady.

That good mood did not last. Waller also said on September 3 that inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target, even with some recent cooling.

He added he would lean toward leaving rates unchanged if August data confirms the improvement, but would raise rates if that improvement turns out temporary. The strong jobs number gave hawks more to work with.

What do Fed rate hike odds mean for crypto?

Rate expectations have shifted hard in just a few weeks. Markets now price a 59.4% chance of a hike to 375-400 basis points at the September 16 meeting, up from 49.4% one day earlier and 54.4% a month ago.

This kind of swing matters because tighter policy usually means less liquidity and lower appetite for risky assets. When the odds jump this quickly, sharp price reactions tend to follow.

How big were the crypto liquidations this week?

Total liquidations across crypto hit $399.70 million in 24 hours. BTC led with $109.83 million wiped out, followed by Ethereum at $103.06 million. ZEC, XRP, and SOL also saw heavy liquidations.

Long positions took the bigger hit, losing $271.57 million versus $128.13 million on shorts. Over 90,500 traders got liquidated in that span. The single largest order was a $23.17 million BTCUSDT position on Binance.

Crypto market cap reportedly dropped by more than $200 million in just fifteen minutes after the jobs data hit, showing how sensitive digital assets remain to macro surprises.

Are Bitcoin ETFs still seeing inflows?

Despite the price dip, spot ETFs pulled in $175 million in net inflows on September 4, marking a third straight day of gains. BlackRock's IBIT led with $117 million, and Fidelity's FBTC added $57.22 million.

Ethereum ETFs also saw $26.46 million in inflows the same day. Steady ETF demand alongside a price pullback suggests longer-term buyers are not rattled by short-term volatility.

Bitcoin technical analysis: what does the chart show?

On the two-hour chart, BTC broke out of a descending channel and pushed sharply higher before settling into consolidation around $79,500 to $79,700. The Supertrend indicator has flipped green, lining up with the recent bullish push.

If price holds the $79,200 to $79,500 zone, the next target sits around $80,500 to $81,200. A stronger breakout could open the door toward $81,700 to $82,000.

A drop back below $79,200 would weaken this setup and could send price toward $78,500, possibly back into the old channel range. RSI sits near the middle at 51.52, showing the market is not stretched in either direction yet.

Is sentiment matching the price gains?

According to Santiment data, BTC gained 24% in August while its social volume rose only 6%. Weighted sentiment stayed near zero through the rally and turned negative again on August 26, even as price sat near its highs.

Analysts pointed to a record short liquidation event, around $2.7 billion, with roughly 92% from shorts, as a major driver. That kind of move can happen from forced short covering alone, without new buyers stepping in.

Bitcoin price prediction: what's next?

The setup right now is a tug of war. On one side, Fed rate hike odds are climbing, and jobs data came in hot, both of which pressure risk assets.

On the other side, ETF inflows remain positive, and the chart still favors buyers as long as $79,200 holds. The next big test comes at the FOMC meeting on September 15-16.

Traders will likely watch upcoming inflation data closely between now and then, since that could tip the Fed's decision one way or the other.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.