SpaceX Stock Price Crashes as Musk Loses $500B: Will It Hold IPO Price

What is the SpaceX stock price today?

SpaceX stock (SPCX) closed at $136.08 on Tuesday, down 2.2% on the day.

That wiped out close to $39.5 billion in equity value in a single session.

Shares are now just 0.8% above the $135 IPO price. They also sit 39.7% below the June 16 high of $225.64.

Why is SpaceX stock price falling after its IPO?

The SpaceX stock price has been sliding since its June 2026 debut. The company's market value fell from near $2.9 trillion to about $1.83 trillion in about a month.

That's roughly $1.2 trillion lost in valuation. High expectations at listing left little room for error.

Investors are also watching insider unlocks. Analyst Cathie Wood's ARK Invest, though, has kept buying. ARK added another $21 million of SPCX shares this week.

As per the tweet, across its funds, ARK now holds 3,850,606 shares of $SPCX worth close to $535.8 million, spread across ARKX, ARKQ, ARKK, and ARKW.

When is the next SpaceX stock unlock date?

One trader who goes by winkle on X laid out a rough unlock schedule. Wave 1 lands August 11 with a 20% unlock, taking cumulative unlocked supply near 25%.

More waves follow on September 24, October 25, and in November, each adding further supply to the market.

More shares hitting the market from employees and early holders can add selling pressure. That risk is why many traders are watching August 11 closely.

What is the SpaceX stock price target?

Morgan Stanley started coverage with an Overweight rating and a $300 price target.

The bank expects share revenue to grow from around $45 billion in 2026 to $319 billion by 2030, and as high as $3.3 trillion by 2040.

It also expects Starship reusability to cut launch costs to about $500 per kilogram by 2030, then below $200 per kilogram by 2035.

For comparison, SpaceX's own IPO disclosures cited around $18 billion in current revenue. Musk has talked about a long-term goal of $1 trillion a year.

Could SpaceX stock price fall further?

Some traders are comparing SPCX to past tech crashes. Amazon fell 95% from its dot-com peak. Nvidia fell 90%. Apple fell 82%. Tesla fell 75% at one point.

Applying similar math to SpaceX, a 70% drop from the $225 high would put shares near $67. An 80% drop would land near $45.

These are historical patterns, not predictions. The stock could also stabilize if buyers step back in near current levels.

On the hourly chart, SPCX has been in a steady downtrend since mid-June, with RSI sitting near 31, in oversold territory.

Liquidation data from Coinglass-style trackers shows heavier short liquidation leverage building above $139, while long liquidations cluster below $137.

How much has Elon Musk lost from the SpaceX stock price drop?

Elon Musk's net worth has fallen by more than $500 billion in under a month.

Most of that comes from his $SPCX stake. Musk holds roughly $840 billion worth of stock at peak value, and that position has lost more than half a trillion dollars as shares fell.

The stock is down almost 40% since its June highs. Since Musk's holding is so large, even small percentage moves in SPCX translate into huge dollar swings for his personal net worth.

This is a paper loss, not a realized one, since Musk hasn't sold the shares. But it shows how tightly his wealth is now tied to how $SPCX stock trades as a public company.

Will $SPCX stock price come back?

Nobody can say for certain. The stock has already erased most of its post-IPO gains, and the stock is now hovering just above its $135 IPO price.

Bulls point to Morgan Stanley's $300 price target, and long-term revenue growth from Starlink, AI compute, and Starship.

Bears point to the stock's high valuation relative to current revenue and the upcoming unlock waves starting August 11.

Whether the stock price recovers may depend heavily on how the first public earnings report lands, and whether unlocked shares get sold quickly or held.

When is the SpaceX earnings date?

SpaceX hasn't confirmed a date. Analysts widely expect the first public earnings report around August 6, 2026, right before the lock-up period ends.

That timing means investors will get a first real look at the numbers just before a wave of insider selling becomes possible.

Other space names moved differently on the same day. MDA Space rose 7.8%, Rocket Lab gained 2.7%, and AST SpaceMobile added 1.8%.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Stock prices are volatile and can result in significant losses. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.