SpaceX Stock Price Falls Below IPO Level Amid Share Unlock & Earnings

SpaceX stock is having a rough week. Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp, trading as SPCX on Nasdaq, closed Thursday at $131.11.

That is already below the company's $135 IPO price. Things got worse after hours. The stock fell another 7.47% to $125.90 in premarket trading.

Let's discuss the SpaceX stock price prediction: where will $SPCX price go?

Why is SpaceX stock price dropping today?

Trader and commentator Peter Schiff flagged the move on social media. 

He noted SPCX dropped 3.7% after hours to $126.25, which is 6.5% below its IPO price and 44% off its all-time high.

Schiff pointed out this drop is happening before any lockups even expire. Once they do, the tradable float could expand by 8 times before year-end. That is a lot of new supply hitting the market.

Adding to the pressure, SpaceX scrubbed its 13th Starship test flight attempt. No new launch date has been announced yet, and the stock slid further after the news broke.

SPCX price and market snapshot

CoinGlass Liquidation data shows longs took the bigger hit. In the past 4 hours alone, long positions lost $388.94K compared to $96.78K for shorts, based on perpetual futures tracking data.

Is Cathie Wood buying SpaceX stock dip?

Not everyone is running away. Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Investment Management, added more than $36 million worth of SPCX shares this week as the stock traded under its IPO price for the first time.

Wood has a track record of buying newly public growth stocks during early pullbacks. This looks like a similar move.

What happens at SpaceX earnings in August?

SpaceX is expected to post its first quarterly results in the first week of August. That same window triggers the first scheduled share unlock, freeing about 20% of restricted shares.

There is also a bonus 10% tranche that unlocks early, but only if shares close 30% above IPO price on five of the ten trading days before earnings. That means closing above $175.50. SPCX is nowhere near that level right now.

How low could SpaceX stock price go?

Some traders are comparing SPCX to past tech crashes. Amazon fell 95% from its dot-com peak. Nvidia dropped 90% at one point. Apple fell 82%, and Tesla saw a 75% drop during a rough stretch.

If SPCX followed a 70% drop from its $225 high, shares would land near $67. An 80% drop would put it around $45. These are just historical patterns, not predictions.

On the technical side, the 1-hour chart shows SPCX in a steady downtrend, trading under its 20, 50, 100, and 200 EMA lines. RSI sits near 29.65, suggesting the stock is approaching oversold territory.

What are the key SPCX price levels to watch?

Sellers stayed aggressive in premarket trading, pushing SPCX below the $130 mark with little resistance.

A break below $125 could trigger another wave of panic selling. That zone has acted as short-term support so far, and losing it may drag the stock toward deeper losses.

If buyers step in and defend that area, a recovery toward $137 and then $140 is possible. A stronger move above $145 would open the door to $150 and a retest of the day's high.

On the downside, a daily close below $125 would break the current short-term structure. That could pave the way for a slide toward the $100 level.

Volume did pick up during the morning rebound attempt, but the move lacked real follow-through, a sign that buyers have not fully committed yet.

What is Morgan Stanley's SpaceX stock price target?

Morgan Stanley started coverage with an Overweight rating and a $300 price target. The bank cited SpaceX's reach across space infrastructure, connectivity, and AI.

Morgan Stanley expects SPCX revenue to grow from about $45 billion in 2026 to $319 billion by 2030, and as high as $3.3 trillion by 2040. It also expects Starship reusability to cut launch costs to around $500 per kilogram by 2030, dropping below $200 per kilogram by 2035.

Some technical analysts still see a possible rebound toward $158 if buyers step back in near current levels.

Final thoughts on SpaceX stock

SpaceX stock is under pressure from a scrubbed launch, weak sentiment, and unlock worries ahead of August earnings. Whether insiders hold or sell into the new float could matter as much as the earnings report itself.

Long-term bulls like Morgan Stanley and Cathie Wood see opportunity. Short-term traders are watching support levels closely. Nothing here is guaranteed either way.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency and stock markets are volatile and carry risk. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.