XRP Price Signal Hasn't Fired Since June: Here's Why It Matters

XRP Price Prediction: Buy Signal Meets Weak ETF Flows, What Next?

XRP is trading near the $1.08–$1.11 area, with traders watching a fresh technical buy signal and the token's ability to defend key support. The latest XRP price prediction debate comes as the SuperTrend indicator turns bullish on the 4-hour chart, while on-chain data shows XRP holders sitting on some of their deepest unrealized losses.

The setup is mixed. The SuperTrend signal, deeply negative MVRV readings, and a potential falling-wedge formation could support a relief rally. However, weak XRP ETF demand, derivatives activity, and critical support levels leave the bullish case unconfirmed.

The key question is whether XRP can hold the $1.05–$1.06 support zone and reclaim $1.12. A stronger move toward $1.20–$1.35 could provide confirmation of a broader recovery.

Why did the XRP SuperTrend indicator flash a buy signal?

A trader posting chart analysis under the handle Ali Charts pointed out a fresh bullish SuperTrend signal on 4-hour chart.

The SuperTrend is a trend-following indicator that generally uses price movement and Average True Range (ATR) calculations to identify potential changes in market direction. The exact settings used in the referenced chart were not disclosed, so the signal should not be treated as a universally reproducible trading trigger.

According to the referenced analysis, the previous buy signal was followed by a 14% XRP rally. The same indicator had also produced two earlier sell signals that preceded declines of approximately 19% and 16%.

This historical performance explains why traders are watching the latest signal. However, the sample is limited and does not guarantee another 14% rally.

For the current $XRP price prediction, confirmation will depend on price action. Holding $1.05–$1.06 and reclaiming $1.12 with stronger volume would improve the bullish setup. A break below $1.00 would significantly weaken it.

Does the $XRP falling wedge point to a bigger rebound?

Another weekly chart shared by trader Celal Kucuker shows $XRP inside a long, narrowing structure commonly called a falling wedge. The token recently approached the lower boundary near $1.06.

Traders often look for a potential rebound or upside breakout when price reaches the lower boundary of a falling wedge. However, the pattern does not guarantee a breakout and requires confirmation through price and volume.

The referenced chart also indicates a possible longer-term target above $7.80 based on a Fibonacci extension. This should be considered a speculative technical projection rather than a near-term $XRP price prediction.

For short-term traders, the $1.00–$1.35 range is more relevant. Holding $1.05–$1.06 could keep the recovery structure alive, while reclaiming $1.12 and moving toward $1.20–$1.35 would strengthen the bullish case.

Is $XRP oversold based on on-chain data?

On-chain analytics from Santiment show its average trading returns near some of their lowest levels in the token's history.

The 30-day MVRV ratio is around -45%, while the 365-day reading is close to -47%, based on the supplied data. These readings suggest that both shorter-term and longer-term holders are underwater on average.

Deeply negative MVRV readings can sometimes create conditions for a relief rally because market sentiment becomes heavily pessimistic. However, they do not guarantee that a price bottom is already in.

It can continue falling if broader market conditions weaken or selling pressure remains high.

Therefore, the current analysis should combine MVRV with the SuperTrend signal, RSI, volume, ETF flows, and price structure rather than relying on a single metric.

What do $XRP ETF flows say about institutional demand?

ETF demand remains an important part of the current XRP price prediction.

The supplied SoSoValue data showed a $7.29 million net outflow from spot ETFs on July 8, following sessions with zero net flows. The fund group was also reported to be down approximately $2.66 million for July at that point.

This suggests institutional demand temporarily cooled after earlier inflows.

However, one negative session or a short period of weak flows does not automatically signal a long-term reversal. ETF flows are better treated as a confirmation indicator alongside trading volume, momentum, and broader market liquidity.

The bullish case would become stronger if ETF inflows turn consistently positive while it holds the $1.05–$1.06 support zone. Continued outflows combined with declining volume and a breakdown below support would increase downside risk.

What do $XRP futures and derivatives data show?

Derivatives activity around XRP remains significant. The supplied data showed 24-hour futures volume near $1.9 billion in one update, with open interest around $2.4 billion and up roughly 6% on the day.

Long positions have generally outnumbered shorts on major exchanges, with long-to-short ratios above 1 on platforms such as Binance and OKX. Liquidation data also showed leveraged long positions being wiped out during recent market swings.

This creates a mixed setup. Rising open interest can support a strong move when backed by genuine spot demand, but excessive leverage can also increase volatility and trigger liquidation cascades.

Traders should therefore monitor spot trading volume alongside futures activity. A sustained rise in spot demand would provide stronger confirmation of a recovery than a move driven primarily by leverage.

Which $XRP support and resistance levels matter now?

The $1.05–$1.06 region is the most important support zone in the current technical framework.

If it holds this area, the SuperTrend buy signal and potential falling-wedge setup remain relevant. Buyers could then target $1.12, followed by $1.20–$1.35.

The $1.04 area is also important as a potential bearish-flag target. A sustained break below $1.00 would represent a more serious deterioration in the short-term structure.

For a detailed breakdown of the current XRP support and resistance levels, traders can monitor the key zones below while comparing them with the broader $XRP technical structure.

XRP Price Prediction: Bull, Base and Bear Scenarios

The base case currently carries the highest probability. Under this scenario, it holds $1.05–$1.06 but struggles to establish a decisive breakout. The token could remain between $1.05 and $1.35 while traders wait for stronger confirmation from ETF flows, spot volume, and broader market conditions.

The bull case becomes more likely if XRP reclaims $1.12 and eventually breaks through $1.20–$1.35 with strong volume. Positive ETF flows could further strengthen this scenario.

The bear case would become more likely if $XRP loses $1.05–$1.06 and breaks below $1.00. This could expose lower support and invalidate much of the immediate bullish thesis.

$XRP Price Prediction: What could happen next?

The immediate XRP price prediction remains cautiously bullish, but confirmation is still needed.

The fresh SuperTrend buy signal, deeply negative MVRV readings, and falling-wedge structure suggest the possibility of a relief rally. However, technical signals alone are not enough.

If XRP holds above the $1.05–$1.06 zone, it could reclaim $1.12 and attempt a move toward $1.20–$1.35.

A sustained breakout above $1.35 would strengthen the broader bullish case, while a break below $1.00 would significantly weaken it.

For traders asking will XRP go up tomorrow, the answer remains uncertain. The short-term direction will likely depend on support at $1.05–$1.06, momentum around $1.12, spot volume, ETF flows, and derivatives positioning.

Overall, XRP is cautiously bullish rather than decisively bullish. The technical setup has improved, but the market still needs confirmation that buyers can overcome weak ETF demand and sustain the recovery.

Investors looking at the longer-term XRP price prediction 2026 should also consider whether the current rebound can develop into a sustained trend. A successful reclaim of major resistance, improving ETF flows, and stronger spot demand could support a more constructive outlook, while a loss of $1.00 would raise concerns about deeper downside.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable, and prices can rise or fall sharply without warning. Past performance of any indicator, technical pattern, or analyst projection does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.