XRP Price Signal Hasn't Fired Since June: Here's Why It Matters
XRP Price Prediction: Buy Signal Sparks Rebound Hopes
XRP is trading close to $1.08 on July 3, 2026. The token is up a few percent over the past day. Traders are watching closely after a fresh technical signal appeared on the charts.
A well-known chart indicator just flipped to a buy signal. At the same time, on-chain data shows XRP holders are sitting on some of the deepest losses in the coin's history.
Some analysts think this mix could set up a bounce.
What is the XRP price today?
The altcoin is changing hands around $1.08, based on data pulled from major exchanges and trackers early Friday. Trading volume over the past 24 hours sits above $1.8 billion.
Market cap is close to $67 billion, keeping the sixth-largest cryptocurrency by that measure.
Metric | Value |
Price (approx.) | $1.08 |
24h Change | +2% to +4% |
Market Cap | ~$67B |
24h Volume | ~$1.8B |
Circulating Supply | 62.24B XRP |
Max Supply | 100B XRP |
Why did the SuperTrend indicator flash a buy signal?
A trader who posts chart analysis under the handle Ali Charts pointed out that the SuperTrend indicator, a tool that tracks momentum and trend direction, turned bullish on XRP's 4-hour chart. This is the first such signal since mid-June.
According to that post, the last time this signal appeared, the altcoin rallied 14%. The same indicator also flagged two earlier sell signals that came before drops of 19% and 16%. That track record is why some traders are paying attention now.
Price on the chart was marked near $1.084 at the time the signal fired, close to where XRP trades today.
What does the falling wedge pattern show?
A separate chart shared by trader Celal Kucuker on the weekly timeframe shows XRP inside a long, narrowing pattern often called a falling wedge. The price recently touched the lower boundary of this pattern near $1.06.
Chart watchers who follow this pattern type generally expect a bounce or breakout once price reaches the wedge's lower edge.
The chart marks a possible longer-term target above $7.80, based on a Fibonacci extension method, though that kind of projection is speculative and far from guaranteed.
Is XRP oversold based on on-chain data?
On-chain analytics from Santiment show XRP's average trading returns near their lowest point in the token's roughly 12-year history.
The 30-day MVRV ratio, a metric comparing current price to the average price paid by holders, sits at about -45%. The 365-day MVRV is close to -47%.
That means both short-term and long-term holders are underwater on average. When both readings are this negative at once, it often signals heavy pessimism across the trader base.
Analysts who track this metric note that periods of extreme pain have sometimes preceded sharp reversals in past cycles. That said, deeply negative MVRV readings do not guarantee an immediate turnaround, and prices can still fall further during broader market weakness.
What do futures and derivatives data show?
Derivatives activity around XRP has picked up. Recent data shows 24-hour futures volume near $1.9 billion, with open interest around $2.4 billion, up roughly 6% on the day.
Long positions have outnumbered short positions on major exchanges, with long-to-short ratios above 1 on platforms like Binance and OKX.
Liquidation data shows more long positions than short positions wiped out in the past 24 hours, a sign that some leveraged buyers got caught offside during recent swings.
XRP price prediction: what could happen next?
No one can say for certain where XRP goes from here. The SuperTrend signal and stretched MVRV readings point to conditions that have historically preceded bounces. The falling wedge pattern also lines up with that idea.
If XRP holds above the $1.05 to $1.06 zone, a move back toward $1.20 to $1.35 is plausible if buying pressure builds, based on recent chart resistance levels. A break below $1.00 would likely challenge the more bullish case.
Longer-term targets like $7 or $8, mentioned in some social media posts, would require a major shift in market conditions and are far from assured. Traders should treat such figures as speculative scenarios, not forecasts.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and prices can rise or fall sharply without warning. Past performance of any indicator or chart pattern does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
