XRP Price Prediction: XRP ETF Flows Quiet, Then Negative - What's Next

XRP trades near $1.11 as ETF demand cools off

$XRP is changing hands around $1.1088 at the time of writing. The token is up 0.93% on the day, but the move has come with some hesitation. The latest XRP ETF flows negative data has added another layer of uncertainty as institutional demand cooled after a sharp outflow on July 8.

This XRP price prediction looks at fresh ETF data, a key chart pattern, liquidation levels, and major support zones to map out where XRP could head next.

Trading volume over the past 24 hours sits near $1.03 billion to $1.33 billion across major pairs. That is not particularly strong compared with periods of aggressive market activity, and it lines up with a broader slowdown in demand this week.

The key question for the price prediction today is whether the $1.06 support zone can hold while ETF demand remains weak.

Why did spot ETF inflows turn negative?

As per SoSOValue Data , Spot $XRP ETFs just posted their weakest day since March. On July 8, 2026, Ripple-linked ETF products saw a net outflow of $7.29 million.

That single day wiped out momentum that had been building. The fund group is now down $2.66 million for the month of July 2026.

Here is how the last week of flows looked:

Two straight days of zero flow, followed by a sharp outflow, is not a great sign. It shows buyers stepped back right when the altcoin needed fresh demand.

For investors following the latest XRP ETF news, the key point is that one negative flow day does not automatically confirm a long-term trend reversal. However, continued outflows over several sessions could weaken the demand narrative and put additional pressure on price.

Do negative $XRP ETF flows predict price drops?

The relationship between ETF flows and $XRP price is important, but it is not always immediate.

A simple flow-versus-price comparison suggests that negative ETF flows can coincide with weaker momentum, but outflows do not automatically trigger a price crash. It can still rise when ETF flows are flat or negative if derivatives traders, spot buyers, or broader crypto market strength provide enough demand.

The recent data shows this clearly. $XRP is trading around $1.11 despite the $7.29 million ETF outflow, meaning the price has not experienced a proportional collapse.

This suggests ETF flows should be treated as a confirmation indicator rather than a standalone price signal.

The current XRP forecast therefore combines ETF flows with RSI, EMA structure, MVRV, and trading volume. Positive ETF inflows combined with rising spot volume would strengthen the bullish case. Negative flows alongside declining volume and a breakdown below support would make the bearish scenario more likely.

What does the $XRP chart pattern suggest?

Chart watcher Ali Charts flagged a possible bearish flag forming on the 1-hour chart. If the pattern plays out, the next target could be $1.04.

The chart shows the altcoin dropping from around $1.14 toward $1.08, then consolidating in a tight triangle near $1.096. A break below that triangle could send the price toward the flag target.

This kind of setup is common after a sharp drop. Price often pauses, forms a small range, then continues in the direction of the original move.

From an $XRP technical analysis perspective, traders should watch whether price can reclaim $1.12 and hold above the $1.06 support zone.

The broader XRP support and resistance structure remains critical. A breakdown could confirm the bearish flag, while a recovery above nearby resistance could invalidate the pattern.

Where is the key $XRP support level?

According to URPD data, $1.06 is the floor that matters most right now.

If the altcoin holds above $1.06, the daily buy signal stays valid. That could open the door to a rebound toward $1.27 and then $1.35.

If the altcoin closes a full day below $1.06, the setup changes. A deeper flush toward $0.80, $0.62, or even $0.51 becomes possible.

Neither outcome is guaranteed. $XRP price prediction models built on support and resistance are only as good as the levels holding up in real time.

For a broader view of the current levels, traders can review the XRP support and resistance levels analysis and compare the current setup with the broader XRP price prediction 2026 outlook.

What do $XRP futures and liquidation data show?

Futures data paints a mixed picture. The futures volume is down 33.19% to $1.34B, and open interest slipped 0.70% to $2.34B.

Long and short liquidations tell an interesting story. Over the past 24 hours, shorts got hit harder, losing $658.21K compared to $365.20K in long liquidations.

The liquidation heatmap shows heavy long liquidation pressure clustered between $1.04 and $1.09, an area already passed through.

On the upside, short liquidation clusters sit between $1.11 and $1.22, meaning a push higher could trigger short covering.

Binance data shows more accounts holding long positions than short, with a long/short ratio near 2.72. That suggests retail traders are still leaning bullish even after the pullback.

XRP Technical Model: What indicators matter?

The current XRP analysis today uses several indicators rather than relying on ETF flows alone.

RSI measures momentum and can show whether XRP is becoming oversold or overbought. The 20, 50, 100, and 200 moving averages help identify the broader trend and resistance areas.

MVRV is used as a valuation and sentiment cross-check, while trading volume helps determine whether price moves have meaningful participation.

$XRP Fibonacci levels can also be used as secondary support and resistance references after a confirmed swing high and low.

The model therefore treats $1.06 as the immediate structural level. A break below it with falling volume and weakening momentum would increase downside risk. A recovery above $1.12, followed by stronger volume and improving ETF flows, would support the bullish scenario.

$XRP Price Prediction: Bull, Base and Bear Scenarios

The following scenarios combine XRP ETF flows, RSI, EMA trends, MVRV, volume, support and resistance, and derivatives positioning.

The base case currently carries the highest probability because XRP is sitting near critical support while ETF demand has weakened.

A hold above $1.06 could support a recovery toward $1.27 and $1.35. However, a decisive daily close below $1.06 could expose the $0.80, $0.62, and $0.51 levels.

Is there a longer-term case for $XRP?

Beyond the charts, there is a structural argument some analysts point to. The $XRP Ledger has reportedly crossed 1 million agentic payments through the X402 protocol.

Supporters see this as a sign the network is being used for real payment automation, not just speculation. Whether that translates into near-term price strength is a separate question from daily chart patterns.

Short-term traders are watching $1.06 and $1.04. Longer-term holders are watching network usage and ETF flow trends over weeks, not days.

Analyst targets also remain widely separated. Standard Chartered has a reported 2026 base-case target near $2.80, while EGRAG Crypto has discussed a much more aggressive $7-$10 cycle view. Other long-term projections are even higher, but these remain speculative and depend on broader adoption, liquidity, regulation, and sustained demand.

$XRP Price Prediction: Key levels to watch

What Is the $XRP Price Prediction This Week?

The XRP price prediction this week depends heavily on the $1.06 support level.

If XRP holds above $1.06 and ETF-flows stabilize, the token could attempt a move toward $1.27 and $1.35. A break below $1.06, however, would strengthen the bearish flag setup and put $1.04 into focus first.

For anyone asking will $XRP go up tomorrow, the answer remains uncertain. The immediate direction could depend on ETF-flows, derivatives positioning, liquidation activity, and whether buyers defend the $1.06 level.

The market is currently $XRP bullish or bearish? The short-term picture is mixed, but the setup becomes increasingly bearish if $1.06 fails on a daily closing basis.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile and unpredictable. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance and technical patterns do not guarantee future results.