SpaceX Stock Down 45% From IPO High: Is $107 the Next Floor for SPCX?

SpaceX Stock Price Today: Where SPCX Stands After the Sell-Off

SpaceX stock ($SPCX) closed Friday at $123.99, down 5.43% on the day. That's a sixth straight losing session.

In after-hours trade, the stock was seen near $124.14, up a small 0.12%. The perpetual live price sat at $125.07.

At Friday's close, SpaceX carried a market value of $1.63 trillion. That's down hard from its $2.64 trillion value on June 16, just its third day of trading.

Over the past 31 days, the stock has wiped out roughly $1.3 trillion in market value, based on data shared by Bull Theory. The stock hit a fresh low of $122 during that stretch.

Why Is SpaceX Stock Falling So Fast?

SpaceX's IPO on June 12 was the biggest in history. Shares priced at $135, opened near $150, and touched $225 intraday within a week.

At that peak, SpaceX briefly passed both Amazon and Microsoft by market value. Investors weren't just buying a rocket company. Many were buying it as an AI stock.

"Everyone saw SpaceX as an AI story," said Willy Lee, an investor at private markets platform Neosteller.

That story has cooled fast. The stock is now down 45% from its IPO high. Friday's drop came right after Elon Musk's company aborted a test flight for its Starship rocket.

Is SpaceX Stock Oversold Right Now?

The hourly chart shows a clean downtrend since mid-June. Price is grinding below its 20, 50, and 100 EMA lines, with a white trendline connecting lower highs all the way down.

The RSI reading sits at 25.34, deep in oversold territory. That doesn't guarantee a bounce, but it does suggest sellers may be running low on fresh ammunition after six days of steady losses.

On the hourly chart, the share opened at $123.88, hit a high of $124.88, dipped to a low of $123.50, and closed at $123.98, up 0.15% on the session with volume of 727.54K shares.

Why Is the Pentagon Interested in SpaceX?

Even with the stock under pressure, SpaceX's AI infrastructure arm is expanding. Through its data center project Colossus, the company already has three paying AI customers.

Anthropic reportedly pays around $1.25 billion a month. Google pays close to $920 million a month. Reflection AI pays about $150 million a month. Combined, that's $27.8 billion a year in contracted revenue.

Now the Pentagon may join the list. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Defense Department is in talks to buy AI computing power from SpaceX, giving it access to Colossus data centers to run AI models. The deal could be worth several billion dollars.

When Is the Next SpaceX Earnings Date?

SpaceX hasn't confirmed an exact date. Analysts widely expect the company's first public earnings report around August 6, 2026.

That date carries extra weight. It lines up closely with the end of the IPO lock-up period, when employees holding shares from compensation packages become free to sell.

SPCX Trading Volume and Liquidations Across Exchanges

The shares also trade as a tokenized perpetual product on several crypto exchanges, and volume there has been heavy during the sell-off.

Binance leads with $887.54 million in SPCX volume, followed by OKX at $316.48 million and tradeXYZ at $247.86 million. MEXC, Bitget, Bybit, and Bitunix round out the rest of the activity.

Liquidations have piled up alongside the drop. Over the past 24 hours, total liquidations reached $4.27 million, with long positions accounting for $2.71 million of that and shorts making up $1.56 million.

Long/short ratios on major venues still lean bullish despite the price action. Binance's SPCX/USDT pair shows a long/short ratio of 5.6711 by account, while OKX shows 6.66.

Among Binance's top traders, the ratio stands at 6.4794 by account and 2.386 by position size. That suggests many traders are still positioned for a bounce even as the price grinds lower.

SpaceX Share Unlock Date: What Happens on August 6

Roughly $123 billion worth of SPCX shares are set to become unlocked starting August 6, a volume some traders estimate at many multiples of the stock's typical daily trading activity.

One trader breakdown circulating online lays out the unlock schedule this way:

That same trader compared the setup to Tesla's post-IPO playbook, when Tesla shares fell roughly 50% from their peak. Applying similar math to SpaceX, they floated a possible floor near $107, along with a scenario of a rally toward $145 before a flush toward $80, then a bounce to $96 before another leg down.

These are one trader's opinions based on historical pattern-matching, not confirmed forecasts, and actual price action could look nothing like this.

How Much Has Elon Musk Lost From the SpaceX Crash?

The stock slide has dragged down Elon Musk's personal wealth. Forbes calculated his peak net worth at $1.45 trillion on June 16, the day SPCX shares hit their all-time high.

Since then, Musk has lost close to $700 billion on paper and is now estimated to be worth $792.8 billion.

SpaceX Stock Price Prediction: What Happens Next for SPCX Stock?

Three catalysts stand out for anyone watching the stock price action going forward:

• Starship test flights — Another aborted or failed launch could add fresh selling pressure.

• August 6 earnings and unlock — The combination of a first earnings report and a large share unlock could bring volatility in either direction.

• Pentagon AI deal — A confirmed contract with the Defense Department could offer some support to the stock's AI narrative.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and equity markets are highly volatile, and prices can rise or fall sharply within short periods. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.