XRP Price Prediction: XRP Breaks 50-Month EMA First Time in 3 Years
XRP is trading near $1.08 this week. That's a small bounce from a rough June. But the bigger story is what just happened on the monthly chart, and it's shaping this XRP price prediction going into the second half of July.
What happened to XRP price in June 2026?
The altcoin closed June at $1.04, down 22% for the month. That close broke below $1.26, a level that had held as support since 2023.
It also closed below the 50-month exponential moving average. That's a line held above for more than three years without a real break.
This is not a small technical detail. Losing both levels in the same month is rare, and it shifts the near-term bias to bearish.
Why is XRP price going down right now?
The drop wasn't really about itself. Bitcoin fell about 20% in June and slipped under $59,000, dragging most large-cap tokens lower with it.
MicroStrategy's sale of roughly $216 million in Bitcoin added to the nervous mood. Analysts say big institutional sales like that often make other holders cautious too.
On top of that, the CLARITY Act, a bill that would treat XRP as a commodity under US law, missed its expected early-July vote. The Senate went into recess, and the floor vote has slipped to late July or possibly August.
Spot XRP ETFs also saw zero net flows on one recent day, the first time that's happened since June 25. That said, these products have had just one losing month since launch, and they now hold close to 1.5% of XRP's total supply.
Is the XRP Ledger upgrade finished yet?
Not fully, but it is close. The XRP Ledger's v3.2.0 software has now passed a key milestone, with more than 55% of trusted validators running the latest version.
That's an improvement from earlier readings, when the default validator list sat around 89% and total network-wide node adoption lagged near 43%.
Validators matter more than raw node counts here, since the network needs sustained support from over 80% of trusted validators for two straight weeks before the upgrade can fully activate.
The update brings infrastructure improvements, security fixes, and developer-focused changes. It's a background factor for price, but steady progress on it supports the network's case for institutional use.
What does the monthly chart's RSI say?
The 14-period RSI on the monthly chart sits near 41, below the neutral 50 line. That points to fading momentum rather than oversold conditions.
The 50-month simple moving average on this chart reads around $1.14, just above current price. The altcoin trading below both its EMA and SMA benchmarks on the monthly timeframe is a signal technical traders don't take lightly.
What are the key price levels to watch?
Level | Price | What it means |
Resistance | $1.26 | Level lost in June, needs a monthly close back above to flip bias |
Current zone | $1.01–$1.08 | Price is boxed between recent lows and resistance |
Support 1 | $0.93–$0.76 | 2023–2024 supply zone, first target below $1.00 |
Support 2 | $0.67 | 2018 and 2020 resistance zone |
Support 3 | $0.47 | Near the 50-week moving average |
Support 4 | $0.29 | 2018–2019 lows, deepest bear case |
Losing $1.00 parity is the line most analysts point to. Below it, the next real support cluster sits between $0.93 and $0.76, a zone that shows up in almost every XRP price prediction right now.
Where could price go from here?
Every XRP price prediction this week starts from the same problem: the calendar and the chart don't agree yet. Forecasts are split.
Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick has a $2.80 base case and an $8.00 bull target, but both depend on the CLARITY Act passing and ETF inflows reaching $10 billion, neither of which has happened yet.
Changelly's model puts July around $1.17 on average, though that view assumes $1.00 holds. A monthly close under $1.26 argues against that.
More cautious targets, like $0.80 as the next support zone, line up closely with the $0.93–$0.76 band already on the chart.
Right now, the bearish case stays in play as long as the altcoin trades under $1.26. A monthly close back above that shelf would be the signal needed to flip the outlook.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile and unpredictable. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
