FOMC Meeting Today: How Fed Rate Decision Could Impact Crypto Market

Why Market Is Betting on “No Fed Rate Cuts” at the FOMC Meeting Today

The Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC meeting today is widely expected to align with market expectations of no rate change. In this two-day conclave, held on March 17-18, 2026, Federal Reserve is likely to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50%-3.75%, majorly due to uncertainties generated by U.S.-Iran tensions.

This overwhelmingly expected Fed interest rate decision is supported by market pricing on prominent tools like CME FedWatch, which showed probabilities of 98.9% for no change with a minor 1.1% on rate hike and 0% on rate cuts. 

Importantly, if the Federal Reserve paused this time, it would be the first stoppage of the central bank after delivering three consecutive 25-basis-point cuts in late 2025.

Moreover, the Fed’s updated projections from the FOMC meeting 2026 suggest fewer cuts ahead than previously expected, reinforcing a “higher for longer” stance.

From Aggressive Bets to Mild Moves: What’s Driving the Fed?

Early-months data showed aggressive March cut pricing, with 1–2 rate cuts expected. Some economists even floated 2–4 cuts if growth weakened. However, despite strong optimism around the FOMC rate cut, policymakers now look cautious due to persistent inflation and external risks.

• Inflation still above the 2% target (recent readings around 2.4% for CPI, with core measures stickier).

• Economic uncertainty, including geopolitical factors like the Iran conflict driving oil price surges (potential inflationary pressure).

• Signs of softening labor market and slower growth, but not yet enough to force aggressive easing.

The updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and dot plot, set for today’s release, have become key focal points for markets to predict price cuts for the remainder of 2026 amid these persistent inflation and ongoing uncertainty.

What This Means for the Crypto Market

Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins are highly sensitive to Fed policy because they behave as risk-on assets. Lower and higher rates do the opposite.

For now the overall crypto market is holding steady around $2.54 trillion where, Bitcoin at $74,136 show slight low compared to yesterday, and Ethereum at $2,320 showing positive outlook. Adding on, the altcoin index at 55, presents strength among alternate tokens. 

Source: CoinMarketCap Data

However, the cryptocurrency space is highly volatile, any major update can swing millions in seconds. 

• Base case (Most Likely Scenario) — The Fed kept rates unchanged, and the outlook suggests only limited price cuts in 2026. In the past, Bitcoin has often fallen after FOMC meetings due to “sell the news” reactions. So, in the short term, BTC could drop around 2–6%, testing levels near $68K–$70K or lower if sentiment weakens. Altcoins may see even bigger moves.

• Bullish Scenario (Positive Signals) — If Jerome Powell hints at more rate cuts, the market could rally. Lower rates typically weaken the dollar and boost liquidity, supporting crypto and equities. In that case, Bitcoin might rise 3–5% or more, moving toward $75K–$80K.

• Bearish Scenario (Negative Signals) — If the Fed turns more strict and removes expectations of price cuts in 2026, citing oil shocks, war situation, tariffs, etc., would be the most negative, potentially triggering sharper sell-offs. This may lead to a sharper drop in Bitcoin, lower price levels, and more liquidations in the market.

Outlook After the Fed Meeting

While the FOMC meeting today is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, it signals that interest rates may stay high for longer, which could keep pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin and limit market upside.

Crypto markets have shown resilience in early 2026, with Bitcoin recently approaching $74K, but macro-driven volatility remains a key factor. Institutional flows, particularly through Bitcoin ETFs, will continue to amplify reactions to future fed meeting outcomes.

For now, traders and investors are closely watching dollar strength, Treasury yields, and incoming economic data for signals on when the next FOMC rate cut might materialize.