US Fed FOMC Meeting Today: Will Powell Spark Rally or Sell-Off?

US Fed FOMC Meeting Today: Fed Rate Cut Unlikely Amid Global Tensions

The United States Federal Reserve will be announcing its latest interest rate decision today in FOMC meeting, June 18, at 2 PM Eastern Time (11:30 PM IST). It will be followed by a key press conference from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The Crypto Market is on the edge, waiting to see if the Fed is going to make any changes in the interest rates, or keep them steady. 

What Is Expected from Today’s Meeting?

Most experts believe that there will be no rate cut today. According to CME Group data, 99.9% of market participants expect the Fed to hold interest rates at current levels. 

Source: CME Group

This apprehensive behavior can largely be attributed to the increased tensions experienced all over the globe, in particular the conflict between Israel and Iran that has already impacted the global economy. There is no likelihood of the Fed making a reverse move in the current scenario given the fact that inflation is still not under control and that new tariffs have not yet been imposed.

The Federal Reserve has also shown no signs of bowing to political pressure. President Donald Trump recently slammed Jerome Powell, calling him a “numbskull” for not lowering rates earlier. 

Trump stressed on the fact that cutting rates by 2% points could save the United States. economy $600 billion, but the Fed has remained firm on its inflation-fighting strategy. 

Powell's Speech Will Set the Tone

While the Fed rate cut decision in FOMC meeting is mostly expected to be a non-event, all eyes will be on the speech of Jerome Powell. He is expected to discuss how the interest rate will be decided in the future and how the Federal Reserve considers major aspects like economic growth, inflation, and job data.

If Powell keeps a dovish tone, hinting that rate cuts will be going to be there in near future, it could ignite a rally. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum may see a quick surge in the price. 

Alternatively, if he adopts a hawkish stance by claiming that rates will remain higher for longer, investors may panic. A firm approach to inflation might lead to a sell-off of risky assets, including crypto.

Crypto Market May Respond Quickly

For the crypto industry, this FOMC meeting may be a turning point. This is what may happen:

• If the rates are reduced (unlikely today): Cryptocurrency prices might skyrocket. Bitcoin and altcoins tend to do well when interest rates are lowered since more investors shift toward riskier assets.

• If the rates remain constant: The crypto market could drop. Because of high interest rate and escalating global tensions, selling pressure might rise across the market.

The Fed’s decision in FOMC meeting, combined with global war fears, is likely to bring volatility. Many traders are playing it safe ahead of the meeting. The current crypto market is facing a decline of 1.82% in the total market cap. BTC is 1.40% down and ETH is 1.47% as per the CoinMarketCap. 

Source: CoinMarketCap

Looking Ahead

If Fed rate cuts today, the crypto market will go up. Powell’s comments will shape expectations for the next FOMC meeting scheduled on July 30, where 85.5% of analysts also expect no rate change as per the reports of CME Fed Watch. 

For now, smart money is staying cautious. Traders are bracing for impact, whether it’s a bull rally or a sharp correction. One thing is clear: Powell’s words today will decide the next big move for crypto, stocks, and beyond.