SpaceX Stock Falls Below $135 IPO Price as 319M More Shares Unlock
SpaceX Stock Price Prediction: SPCX Slips Below IPO After 319M Unlock
SpaceX Stock (SPCX) dropped 4.05% on August 20, 2026, closing at $134.00. That puts the stock below its $135 IPO price for the first time since it went public.
Volume topped 119 million shares, well above normal. The move came right after a fresh batch of shares hit the open market, despite strong quarterly results.
For anyone tracking SpaceX stock price action since the June listing, this is the first real test of how the market absorbs a wave of new sellers. This SPCX news comes at a sensitive moment for the stock.
Roughly 319 million SpaceX shares unlock for trading
Roughly 319 million SPCX shares unlocked and became tradable, according to a report. This followed an even bigger unlock of 911.5 million shares on August 6, 2026.
Together, more than 1.2 billion shares have entered the tradable float in just a few weeks. That is a lot of new supply hitting the market at once, and it roughly doubled the shares available for trading.
SpaceX set up a staggered lock-up schedule for different share classes held by employees, early investors, and other pre-IPO holders. That structure is why the unlocks are arriving in waves instead of all at once.
More insiders are now free to sell. That pressure has shown up in a string of above-average volume sessions for SpaceX stock, even though the company just posted strong quarterly numbers.
Additional tranches tied to specific share classes have not been fully detailed. The broadest expiration, tied to the standard 180-day lock-up, is still to come.
What is the SPCX stock price prediction right now?
Looking at the 1-hour chart, SPCX put in a major swing low near $104 to $106, then climbed toward the $149 to $150 region before pulling back to the current $132 to $134 area.
This zone matters because it lines up with a key Gann support level and the pivot and S1 region on the chart. Right now, the pullback looks like a normal pause inside a longer recovery move, not a full trend change.
As long as price holds above $130, the near-term bias stays cautiously bullish.
Scenario | Price Levels |
First recovery target | $137 to $140 |
Second target | $143 to $145 |
Breakout confirmation | Above $150 |
Extended upside | $152 to $172, possibly $178 |
Support to hold | $130 |
Breakdown target | $127 to $124 |
Deeper downside | $120 to $108 |
A sustained move above $145 would raise the odds of a retest of the $149 to $150 resistance zone. That level has already rejected price once, so buyers need real strength to clear it.
What happens if SPCX breaks below $130?
A confirmed hourly close under $130 would flip the setup bearish. In that case, the next stop is $127 to $124, followed by $120 to $116, and then the $110 to $108 zone.
Fibonacci levels back this up. The 0.5 lifetime log retracement is being tested right now, and a bounce is possible on the first touch.
If that level fails, a drop toward $114.23, the 0.382 log Fib level, becomes more likely.
There is also a longer-term bearish path that some chartists are watching. It calls for a retest of the prior all-time low near $104.85, a recovery attempt, a hard rejection, and then a new low that could stretch down toward $75. This path needs four separate events to line up, and none of them have happened yet.
What is the options market saying about SpaceX stock?
Options data points to a cautious, slightly bearish mood. Implied volatility sits at 62.57%, which is elevated.
The put-call ratio is 1.10 by open interest and 1.09 by volume. That means traders hold more puts than calls right now.
Put open interest is about 2.47 million contracts against 2.23 million calls. Put volume sits near 615,742 contracts versus 565,582 for calls.
Total options volume is close to 1.18 million contracts, slightly above the 30-day average, and total open interest sits near 4.70 million contracts, also above average.
The IV Rank reads 29.84%, while the IV Percentile is higher at 76.1%. Implied volatility is not at its extreme high for the year, but it has stayed elevated for most of the recent stretch.
This setup suggests traders expect choppy price action, with a modest lean toward downside protection rather than a straight bullish bet.
If SpaceX stock holds support, that same volatility could fuel a sharp bounce just as easily as a sharp drop.
Other factors moving SpaceX share price
SpaceX is reportedly interested in Grain Management's $6 billion spectrum portfolio, which could support satellite-to-phone connectivity.
AST SpaceMobile is said to be eyeing the same licenses. Grain picked up the 800 MHz spectrum earlier this month through a swap with T-Mobile.
Separately, Anthropic is reportedly aiming to match or beat SpaceX's record $86.2 billion IPO when it lists by the end of 2026, according to The Kobeissi Letter X post, with some estimates near $100 billion. That comparison has kept SpaceX's own IPO story in the headlines, even as SpaceX stock cools off.
The next big lock-up date is the standard 180-day expiration tied to the June 12 IPO, landing in early December 2026. More tradable shares then could bring another round of volatility for spcx stock price.
SpaceX stock price prediction: What's Next For SPCX?
The current SpaceX stock price prediction leans neutral to cautiously bullish above $130, with $137 to $140 as the first confirmation zone. A close below $130 would shift the picture toward the downside targets outlined above.
Nothing here is a guarantee. Share unlocks add real supply, and that supply needs real demand to absorb it. Watch $130 and $150 as the two levels that matter most this week, and keep an eye on SpaceX news for any fresh unlock or spectrum updates.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
