SpaceX Stock SPCX Surges 6.4% as Valuation Nears $2T Ahead of Unlock
SpaceX Stock Closes Above $149 as Traders Eye the Unlock
SpaceX stock closed up 6.42% to $149.74 on Thursday, pushing the company's valuation back near $2 trillion for the first time since early July
The rally is the top SpaceX news of the day, as traders positioned ahead of two catalysts: a fresh share unlock and the next Starship test flight.
After-hours trading stayed positive, with shares up another 0.35% above $150, putting SPCX in the same valuation tier as Amazon, Taiwan Semiconductor, and Microsoft.
SpaceX Share Price and Trading Snapshot
About 120.96 million shares traded against a 110.58 million average. The space x stock price opened at $141.36 and ranged from $141.05 to $152.30, with intraday market cap near $1.974 trillion.
SPCX pays no dividend and posted trailing EPS of -$1.17, so the bull case rests on growth. Its 52-week range is $104.83 to $225.64, with earnings estimated for November 3, 2026.
When Is the Next SpaceX Share Unlock?
The next unlock lands on September 9, 2026, the 90th trading day since SpaceX went public. Unlike a typical single-date lockup, SpaceX's S-1 filing spreads releases into stages.
Roughly 319 million shares become eligible on September 9, with a smaller 59 million affiliate-tied block on September 10. The 9th carries more than five times the supply of the next day, which is why traders are watching it.
SpaceX Share Unlock Schedule, Explained
Here is the release schedule based on Bloomberg Intelligence data from SpaceX's S-1 filing.
Trigger / Date | Portion Unlocked | Cumulative Unlock |
IPO pricing begins | 0% | 0% |
2nd trading day after Q1 earnings (Aug) | 20% | 20% |
Stock hurdle (~30% above IPO price) | 10% | 30% |
Day 70 after IPO | 7% | 37% |
Day 90 after IPO (Sept 9) | 7% | 44% |
Day 105 after IPO | 7% | 51% |
Day 120 after IPO | 7% | 58% |
Day 135 after IPO | 7% | 65% |
2nd day after Q2 earnings (Nov) | 28% | 93% |
Day 180 after IPO | 7% | 100% |
By month's end, roughly 707 million shares will have entered the market in September alone. The pace continues with about 328 million shares each on October 9 and 24, before the full lockup ends December 8, 2026.
How Has SPCX Stock Reacted to Past Unlocks?
Traders have two data points, and they conflict. The first unlock hit August 6, releasing about 911.5 million shares, the largest tranche on the schedule. SPCX rose 6.1% that day after bottoming near $108, and is now up nearly 43% off that low.
The second tranche came August 20, with 319 million shares released. The spcx stock price dipped 4% to 5% into the date, then stabilized. The pattern is mixed: one unlock triggered a rally, the other a pullback and bounce. That history argues against assuming September 9 means a selloff.
What's Driving Sentiment Beyond the Unlock: Latest SPCX News
Starship test 14 is another factor. SpaceX says the roughly 400-foot rocket could fly within days, targeting around September 15 for the first orbital insertion attempt.
No confirmed date has been locked in, leaving that binary event hanging over the stock.
On spending, SpaceX confirmed a Grimes County, Texas site for Terafab, a semiconductor project with Tesla backed by an initial $16.8 billion and at least 3,000 jobs.
It also disclosed a $100 billion buildout at Starbase, Louisiana, targeting construction in 2027, and said it acquired power provider APR Energy for $1 billion.
Billionaire investor Ron Baron remains a notable holder. His roughly 146 million SPCX shares, tied to a $2.7 billion investment, are now worth more than $20.5 billion.
What Are Analysts Saying About SpaceX Stock?
Not everyone is bracing for a rough unlock week. Koyfin data puts the average analyst price target at $222.32, about 48.5% above current levels.
Oppenheimer raised its target to $280 from $250, keeping an Outperform rating, citing AI infrastructure, Nvidia GPU access, data center growth, and usage tied to Grok and Cursor.
JPMorgan is more measured but still bullish, with a $240 target tied to the AI segment now driving most of the company's valuation.
SPCX Price Prediction: What Comes Next
The setup into September 9 is two-sided. Technically, SPCX is testing the 0.382 log-scale Fibonacci retracement near $150.98.
In August, the stock tried that level twice and failed, dropping toward support near $130 before bouncing. A rejection could repeat that; a clean break above puts the 0.618 level, near $180, in view.
Fundamentally, roughly 319 million newly unlocked shares could add selling pressure if early holders cash out fast.
Against that, analyst targets of $240 to $280 suggest institutions see upside once the overhang clears, much like the recovery after both August tranches.
Some chart watchers see SPCX breaking a falling channel, with a close above $150 setting up a move toward $170 and $185, with RSI also turning higher. Either way, expect volatility as September 9 nears, in a setup with no guaranteed outcome.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Stock prices are volatile and can move sharply based on unlock events, earnings, and company announcements. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
