XRP Price Faces Key Test: $2.74 Support or Drop to $2.35

XRP Awaits ETF Decision While Partnerships Expand

XRP price trades at $2.81 under pressure within a descending triangle, with resistance near the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $2.8250. Sellers continue to limit price below the down trendline, with the key support still at $2.74.

If XRP holds $2.74, then the consolidation may allow for an attempt to rally to higher Fibonacci retracements of $2.93 and $3.00. However, a breakdown would reveal successive downside targets at $2.69, $2.53 and possibly $2.35, based on Fibonacci extensions.

Source : X

Analyst Ali points out this bearish structure, but analyst Xaif Crypto instead compares current structure to the 2017 bull run. In that cycle, XRP price went through accumulation and consolidation before breaking out to new all-time highs, which could indicate another rocket ride ahead.

Source : X

The consolidation period now resembles the conditions of the past, and if history is to repeat itself, then suggested targets are $4.50 and possibly $6.00. The principle that longer accumulation bases tend to precede stronger breakouts is emphasised throughout this thesis.

Adding another perspective, Dark Defender's Elliott Wave projections in "The Masterpiece 11" are shown below. XRP price faces a breakout range of $3.33 to $3.60.

XRP Elliot Wave Analysis | Source : X

A confirmed breakout above this range could initiate Wave (3) higher with Fibonacci extensions targeting at $5.85 and longer-term $18.22. Interim retracements are still key levels, with $3.35 resistance and supports near $2.70 and $1.88 being key levels.

ETF Decisions and Strategic Partnerships

In addition to chart structures, the focus is also on the decision timelines on several spot XRP ETF submissions, all of which are rapidly approaching their deadlines. 

The decision date for Franklin Templeton is November 14 and the US Securities and Exchange Commission has deadlines between October 18 and October 25.

Ripple's 2024 legal victory regarding XRP's non-security status has enabled more than 11 proposals to be under review. Polymarket odds for approval by year-end have jumped 23% from August levels to 87%.

Ripple ETF approved in 2025 | Source : Polymarket 

ETF Store president Nate Geraci put the odds at near 100%, stating that there is a "near certainty that this will happen as the deadline nears." Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas puts approval odds at 95%, citing regulatory clarity and recent SEC leadership changes.

Meanwhile, Ripple continues to grow its global payments footprint by solidifying its partnership with Thunes, which dates back to 2020. The partnership sees Ripple Payments become part of Thunes's SmartX Treasury System, making it more efficient and providing more market coverage.

Thunes spans 90+ markets for payouts, delivering instant settlement in local currencies and filling the gap in underserved areas. Ripple Payments complements this by offering on/off ramps for banks, fintechs and crypto firms while clearing more than $70 billion in volume.