SpaceX Stock Inks New AI Deal, CFO Eyes $100B ARR and $165 Target
SpaceX stock is holding steady near $148 as the company inches closer to a $100 billion annual recurring revenue goal. A fresh AI hosting contract worth $1.1 billion a month is fueling the optimism.
Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) closed Thursday around $148.18, up 0.43% on the day. The stock has been consolidating just under the $150 mark for more than a week now.
What did SpaceX's CFO say about the new AI deal?
CFO Bret Johnsen shared the update at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference on Thursday. He sat down with analyst Eric Sheridan for about 34 minutes.
Johnsen said SpaceX signed another AI compute hosting agreement earlier this month. The deal starts December 1 and will bring in roughly $1.1 billion per month. That works out to about $13.3 billion a year.
He did not name the customer. But he said the deal gives the company more confidence in hitting its year-end target of $100 billion in ARR.
It's worth noting that figure is an exit run rate, not booked revenue. Q2 2026 revenue for the whole company was about $7.8 billion.
How many AI compute deals does SpaceX have now?
This new contract is not the company's first big compute deal. In July, SpaceX signed a six-month, $6.7 billion agreement with another undisclosed client. Some analysts think the Department of Defense may be involved.
Longer deals are already running too. Anthropic pays SpaceX close to $1.25 billion a month through May 2029. Alphabet will start paying around $920 million monthly in October, through June 2029, tied to roughly 110,000 Nvidia GPUs.
Reflection AI has also signed on for a multi-year compute deal.
Johnsen made one thing clear, though. Most of these contracts run on short terms, close to 90 days plus a 90-day extension. Either side can walk away after a few months. SpaceX wants to keep compute free for its own AI growth.
Why does Starship Flight 14 matter for the stock?
Flight 14 is scheduled for later this month. It will be the first Starship mission to carry paying cargo, production V3 Starlink satellites.
That's a big shift after heavy losses. SpaceX's Space segment posted a $542 million operating loss last quarter on $962 million in revenue. R&D spending jumped 55% year over year to $1.08 billion.
Johnsen said reusability of both rocket stages is the real long-term bet. Management claims Starship could cut launch costs by 99% or more once fully reusable.
What is the SpaceX price prediction right now?
Looking at the 2-hour chart, SPCX is consolidating in a rising channel after bouncing off its $104.83 low from August 3.
The stock is trading above its short-term EMAs, near $144.88, $142.70, and $141.48. That lineup still points to a bullish short-to-medium-term trend.
Price is testing resistance around $150 to $155 right now. A clean break above that zone could open the door toward $165, and then $180 further out.
On the flip side, a drop below the $142 to $144 EMA cluster would weaken the setup. That could pull SPCX stock back toward $133.
Wall Street targets are split. Pivotal Research just started coverage with a Buy and $220 target. Bank of America and JPMorgan are both above $230. Wells Fargo trimmed its target to $215, and Piper Sandler cut to $140.
Analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak at Pivotal said the entire investment case rests on one thing: whether Starship can fly 20 to 50 times with cheap, fast turnaround. Without that, he wrote, SpaceX becomes a much smaller company.
Investors should also watch supply pressure. Over 300 million more shares became sellable on September 9, with another large batch unlocking September 24.
Is SpaceX stock a buy right now?
SpaceX stock sits at an interesting spot. The AI hosting business is growing fast, but most contracts are short-term and could shift quickly. Starship's real test starts this month.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Stock prices are volatile and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
