Crypto Market This Week: Fed Rate Decision, PCE and GDP Data in Focus
The crypto market enters a heavy week under pressure. Total market cap is $2.75 trillion, down 1.6% in 24 hours. Bitcoin has fallen below $80,000.
The Fed decides on rates on 28 October. Big US data follows within a day.
Why Is the Crypto Market Down Today?
No single event explains it. Traders are mostly waiting on the Fed, inflation, and growth numbers.
Recent sessions also hit leveraged retail positions. Sellers have been in control.
What Is the Crypto Fear and Greed Index Today?
Period | Score | Mood |
Now | 50 | Neutral |
Yesterday | 54 | Neutral |
Last week | 59 | Greed |
Last month | 74 | Greed |
The score fell from 74 to 50 in a month. Greed has faded, but fear has not taken over.
Will the Fed Raise Interest Rates on 28 October 2026?
In September, the Fed raised rates by 0.25 points to 3.75% to 4%. It was the first hike in more than three years.
CME FedWatch now shows a 90.6% chance of no change and 9.4% for a hike. No cut is priced in.
Date checked | No change (3.75% to 4%) | Hike (4% to 4.25%) |
25 Sep 2026 | 35.8% | 64.2% |
16 Oct 2026 | 84.5% | 15.5% |
23 Oct 2026 | 90.0% | 10.0% |
Now | 90.6% | 9.4% |
New York Fed President John Williams said there is no urgency to raise rates again right away. Traders will watch Chair Kevin Warsh's press briefing for clues.
Which US Data Could Move the Crypto Market This Week?
Date | Event | Forecast and previous |
28 Oct | Fed rate decision | 90.6% chance of no change |
29 Oct | September PCE inflation | Headline 3.6% yearly vs 3.4% in August. Monthly 0.5%. Core 0.3% monthly, 3.1% yearly |
29 Oct | Initial jobless claims | 198,000 expected vs 194,000 last week |
29 Oct | US Q3 GDP | 3.0% to 3.2% vs 2.2% in Q2 |
30 Oct | Japan jobs data, BOJ decision | Rate call due |
All week | Earnings | 35% of S&P 500 companies report |
Hotter inflation could keep hike fears alive. A calm tone from the Fed may help buyers. Nobody knows yet.
What Do Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Data Show?
Metric | Bitcoin | Ethereum |
Total open interest | 2,201 | 18,604 |
Call open interest | 1,177 | 8,720 |
Put open interest | 1,024 | 9,884 |
Put/call ratio (open interest) | 0.87 | 1.13 |
Max pain price | $80,000 | $2,320 |
24h put volume | 5,043.50 | 28,769 |
24h call volume | 5,168.70 | 30,315 |
Put/call ratio (volume) | 0.98 | 0.95 |
Notional value | $176.88 million | $43.34 million |
Bitcoin leans slightly bullish by open interest. Puts stack up at $76,000, $79,000, and $80,000, which may act as support. Calls cluster at $81,000, $81,500, and $86,000, possible resistance.
Ethereum leans slightly bearish. Large put interest sits at $2,100 and $2,200. Calls gather at $2,560 and $2,700.
Where Could Bitcoin Go Next?
If $79,000 to $78,000 breaks, a slide toward $76,300 to $74,000 is possible. A move toward $76,000 would signal a real downtrend.
If buyers reclaim $80,700 to $81,850, the way to $84,000 to $87,400 opens.
Liquidity clusters sit near $81,500, $79,000, and $78,800. A sweep lower may come first.
Will Ethereum Go Up or Down This Week?
If buyers defend $2,300 to $2,280 and reclaim $2,360 to $2,460, a rally toward $2,500 to $2,550 could follow.
If ETH breaks below $2,280 and stays there, $2,220 and $2,150 come into view. The max pain price of $2,320 sits in between.
Can XRP Fall to $0.98?
The bearish case rests on fewer large wallets, higher exchange balances, and a break below $1.26.
If $1.26 fails, $1.11 comes first, about 12% lower. The channel then points to $0.98, about 22% below $1.26.
As per Ali, if $1.26 holds, XRP could stay between $1.26 and $1.34 for a while. None of this is certain.
Disclaimer
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Crypto prices are very volatile, and you can lose money. Do your own research and speak to a licensed advisor before you invest.
