SpaceX Stock SPCX Falls 49% From Its All-Time High: What's Next?

SpaceX stock closed at $115.26 on July 23, down 6.70% on the day. It is the lowest close yet since the company's record $75 billion IPO in June.

The stock is now down nearly 49% from its June 16 peak of $225.64. That has erased more than $1 trillion in market value, with some estimates closer to $1.5 trillion.

Shares ticked up slightly to $116.27 in overnight trading. But the broader trend for SPCX stays bearish, and traders on both Wall Street and crypto exchanges are watching closely.

SpaceX Stock (SPCX) Snapshot

Why Is SpaceX Stock Down Today?

Several things are pressuring the stock at once.

SpaceX's insider lockup starts loosening on August 6, just two trading days after earnings. Traders are selling early to get ahead of that new supply.

A $60 billion all-stock deal to buy AI coding startup Cursor added more shares to the count. That dilutes existing holders.

SpaceX's 13th Starship test flight is also set for later today, adding fresh uncertainty around a stock that already carries a steep valuation.

Peter Schiff, a longtime market skeptic, posted on X that the close near $115 puts SpaceX stock well under its IPO price and close to half off its record high. He called it a possible warning sign for other "overhyped" stocks and tokens.

Is Cathie Wood Still Bullish on SpaceX Stock?

Not everyone is bearish right now.

Cathie Wood's ARK Invest kept buying shares through the sell-off instead of trimming its position.

In a Fox Business interview on July 22, Wood said SpaceX could become "the most important company in global history." She pointed to Starlink's global network and the idea of using orbital data centers to run AI models cheaply.

Elon Musk added his own headline on Tesla's July 22 earnings call. Asked about combining Tesla and SpaceX, he said there is "more and more overlap" between the two companies. He stopped short of confirming any deal.

Wall Street analysts have floated merger odds as high as 80% to 90% by 2027.

SpaceX Stock Price Prediction: Key Levels to Watch

On the hourly chart, SPCX is stuck in a falling pattern of lower highs and lower lows.

Price sits below its short- and long-term moving averages. That usually points to a stock still under pressure.

The RSI, a gauge of how fast a stock is rising or falling, has dropped into oversold territory. That can sometimes lead to a short bounce, though it is not guaranteed.

A move above resistance on strong volume would ease the pressure. A break under support could open the door to more losses. Neither move is certain.

Is SpaceX Stock (SPCX) a Buy Right Now?

Whether SPCX looks like a buy right now depends heavily on risk appetite, since the stock is trading near its 52-week low and remains extremely volatile just weeks after its IPO.

The bull case rests on names like Cathie Wood, whose ARK Invest kept adding shares through the sell-off, and on Musk's hint at "more and more overlap" between Tesla and SpaceX, which some analysts read as a step toward an eventual merger.

The bear case rests on the approaching share unlock, added dilution from the Cursor acquisition, and a stock that still trades at a steep valuation with no profits yet (EPS remains negative).

The derivatives market shows a similar split. SPCX is not just a Nasdaq ticker — several crypto exchanges list perpetual futures that track the stock price, letting traders bet on it around the clock with leverage. Binance carries the most volume by far, followed by OKX and tradeXYZ.

Liquidation data shows who is getting hurt. Traders betting on a bounce keep getting wiped out as the price falls further.

Almost all of the pain has hit long positions. On Binance, the SPCX/USDT long/short ratio for accounts sits at 7.31. On OKX, it is 8.48. That means most retail accounts are still betting on a recovery. 

Binance's top traders look less one-sided, with a position ratio of 2.54, which suggests bigger players are hedging more than the average retail trader — a signal worth weighing against the retail crowd's more bullish lean.

When Is SpaceX Stock's Next Earnings Date?

SpaceX will post its first results as a public company after the close on Tuesday, August 4. The rocket and satellite company stayed private for more than two decades before its June IPO.

A live audio-only webcast starts at 3:30 p.m. CT, hosted on SpaceX's investor relations site.

An extra 10% tranche could also unlock, but only if SPCX averages above $175.50 across five of the ten trading days before August 4. With the stock trading near $115, that trigger looks unlikely to hit.

Disclaimer

This article is for information only and is not financial advice. SPCX shares and SPCX-linked crypto derivatives are highly volatile, and leveraged trading can lead to fast, large losses. Prices, unlock dates, and other figures cited above can change quickly. Always do your own research and speak with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.