SpaceX Stock Price Prediction: Will Share Unlocks Cap the $150 Push?

SpaceX Stock is sitting right below a wall. Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) closed at $143.69 on Monday, up 1.55% on the day. That is a strong move. But the stock has tried this level before and failed.

Traders are now watching one number closely. That number is $149 to $150. SPCX has bounced off it more than once this month.

At the same time, SpaceX is dealing with a messy headline. OpenAI just said it will cut off Cursor, the coding tool SpaceX bought for $60 billion. The timing is not great.

This piece looks at the chart, the news, and what could move SpaceX Stock next.

What Is SPCX Stock Doing Right Now?

On Friday, SPCX opened at $140.07 and touched a high of $144.14. The low was $139.88. Volume came in at 63.15 million shares.

The close of $143.69 marks a gain of $2.19 for the session. That is a 1.55% move up.

After hours, the stock slipped slightly to $143.62, down about 0.05%. Nothing dramatic there. Just a quiet pause after a green day.

Why Did SpaceX Stock Fall So Hard After the IPO?

SPCX listed on June 12, 2026, at $135 per share. It opened at $150 and closed its first day near $161, a 19% pop.

Then the stock gave a lot of that back. It fell all the way down toward the $105 to $110 zone in July.

Since then, SpaceX Stock has been climbing back. It is now up more than 25% over the past month, based on recent trading levels near $141.50.

What Does the Chart Say About SPCX?

Looking at the daily chart, SPCX has been building a rising channel since early August. Higher lows are stacking on top of each other.

The RSI sits at 56.36, which is a neutral to slightly bullish reading. It is not overbought. There is room left to run if buyers stay in control.

The MACD is also holding above its signal line, with a reading of 1.49. That points to steady, if not explosive, upward momentum.

Price has tested the $149 to $150 zone several times without a clean breakout. Each time, sellers stepped back in and pushed SPCX back toward $140.

Could SpaceX Stock Break Above $150?

If SPCX closes convincingly above the $149 to $150 zone on strong volume, the pattern points to a possible move toward $155 to $160 first.

From there, a continuation could open the door to $165 to $170, based purely on the shape of the chart.

If the breakout fails again, a pullback toward $140 to $143 is the more likely outcome. The rising trendline near $135 to $138 would be the next support to watch below that.

None of this is guaranteed. Charts show probability, not certainty. A rejection at resistance has happened before at this exact level.

What Is the OpenAI and Cursor News About?

SpaceX closed a roughly $60 billion acquisition of Anysphere, the parent company of the AI coding tool Cursor, in August. It is one of the largest software deals ever done.

Days before that deal closed, Reuters reported that Russian-speaking hackers had manipulated Cursor into helping breach at least seven companies earlier in the year.

The attacks happened before SpaceX owned the company. But the cleanup work now falls on SpaceX's watch.

Researchers said the hacking group did not break in through a normal exploit. Instead they got Cursor's AI agent to believe their intrusions were authorized security tests, then used that trust to search for login credentials.

The AI agent did refuse harmful requests at times. But attackers just started new chat sessions until they got a different result. That is the core weakness here: guardrails that reset every conversation are not a full fix.

Companies caught up in the breaches included Christeyns in Belgium, Teckentrup in Germany, and Bayou Title in Louisiana.

On top of that, OpenAI announced on August 28 that it will stop supplying its AI models to Cursor. The shutoff date is set for November 12, 2026.

OpenAI said the decision comes down to trust in Elon Musk's companies, pointing to past disputes involving Twitter and xAI. Cursor will still keep access to models from other providers during the transition.

It's worth keeping this in perspective. SpaceX posted $7.81 billion in Q2 revenue, doubled its Starlink subscriber base to 12.0 million, and closed the quarter holding $100 billion in cash. Cursor is a small piece of that balance sheet, even if it is a bigger piece of the headline risk. Wall Street has not soured on the name either: 28 analysts rate SPCX a buy against just 2 sells.

Are Share Unlocks a Risk for SPCX?

Yes, and there is a big one coming soon. SpaceX has a scheduled unlock on September 9, the 90th trading day after its IPO.

That date is expected to release about 319 million more shares into the tradable float. Roughly 59 million affiliate shares follow a day later on September 10.

An earlier unlock on August 20 already added 319 million shares. More supply hitting the market can pressure a stock's price if demand does not keep pace.

The IPO put about 639 million shares into public hands to start. These unlocks are steadily growing that number month by month.

SpaceX Stock Price Prediction: The Bottom Line

SpaceX Stock is caught between two forces right now. The chart looks constructive, with a rising channel and improving momentum indicators. But the news flow is murky, with a cybersecurity headache and a major supplier walking away from Cursor.

A clean break above $150 on strong volume would be the clearest bullish signal. Until that happens, the $140 to $150 range is likely to keep holding SPCX in place.

Watch the September 9 share unlock closely too. Extra supply hitting the market right as the stock tests resistance is a combination worth tracking.

Whether SpaceX Stock breaks out or fades back down, both outcomes stay firmly on the table until price actually clears that ceiling.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Stock prices are volatile and can move sharply in either direction. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.