XRP Price Prediction Ahead of Aug 14 SEC New Crypto Offering Framework

XRP is trading near $1.02 as traders wait to see what the SEC does next. The coin has spent days defending the $1 level like it's the last line standing.

This matters a lot right now. The SEC holds an open meeting on Friday, August 14, to discuss a new offering framework for crypto assets. It could also unveil a tokenized securities exemption on the same day.

For XRP holders, the timing could not be more sensitive. The token is already down more than 70% from its July 2025 high of $3.66.

Where does XRP price stand right now?

The altcoin is changing hands around $1.02, according to data from Bybit and CoinMarketCap. The 24-hour range has been tight, moving between roughly $1.00 and $1.04.

That range tells a story. Every time the altcoin dips near $1, buyers step in fast. Every rally toward $1.10 gets sold just as quickly.

Traders call this a "coiling" pattern. It usually means a bigger move is coming, just not which direction yet.

Why is XRP struggling to break above $1.10?

Part of the answer is legislation, not just charts. The CLARITY Act, a bill meant to bring clearer crypto rules to the US, is stuck in uncertainty ahead of a possible September vote.

That uncertainty is hitting XRP harder than Bitcoin or Ethereum. Both of those coins have held up better in recent weeks, which makes XRP's slide look more isolated than market-wide.

Some traders link this directly to Ripple's ongoing regulatory story. XRP has always traded with one eye on Washington, and that has not changed in 2026.

Is the SEC's August 14 meeting a big deal for XRP?

Yes, and here is why. Bloomberg reported the SEC will consider a tailored offering regime for certain crypto investment contracts at Friday's meeting.

The agency could also introduce an "innovation exemption" for tokenized securities. This would allow 24/7 trading of tokenized stocks on blockchain rails, something Ripple's business already touches through its payments and custody work.

The proposal reportedly includes tighter anti-money-laundering rules. It may also require trading platforms to be US-based entities, and it would let public companies object if a third party tokenizes their shares without permission.

None of this guarantees a price pump. But clearer rules around tokenized offerings tend to matter for a token whose whole pitch is real-world settlement and tokenization.

What are XRP whales doing right now?

Here is where it gets interesting. XRP held on exchanges just hit a seven-year low. That means fewer coins are sitting on trading platforms ready to be sold.

At the same time, wallets holding over 1 million Coins have grown by 32 in the past three months. That growth happened even as XRP's market cap fell nearly 29% over the same stretch.

Large holders adding coins while smaller holders panic is usually read as a sign of accumulation. It does not guarantee a bottom, but it does suggest patience among bigger players.

Ripple's stablecoin, RLUSD, has also grown into a meaningful player among institutional stablecoins this year. That keeps the XRPL tied to real settlement activity, separate from pure price speculation.

XRP price prediction: bullish and bearish scenarios

Bearish case: If XRP fails to hold $1.00, the next stop could be $0.95. Below that, the $0.85 to $0.88 zone has acted as support before and may draw buyers back in.

A break below $1 on high volume would be a real shift. That level has acted as a floor since November 2024, so losing it is not a small thing technically.

Bullish case: A close back above $1.10 to $1.12 would weaken the bearish setup. That could open a path toward $1.20, and possibly $1.30, though nothing is guaranteed either way.

Some analysts, including chartist Javon Marks, have pointed to a longer-term converging pattern on XRP's chart that resembles the 2017 setup before its historic rally.

That kind of comparison points to a much higher measured move target, but it remains a longer-term, speculative read rather than a near-term forecast.

For now, XRP sits in a holding pattern. The chart leans slightly bearish below resistance, but whale accumulation and Friday's SEC decision could shift sentiment quickly in either direction.

The bottom line

XRP's next move likely depends on two things happening close together. One is whether $1 support holds on the charts. The other is what the SEC actually announces on Friday.

Whale accumulation and shrinking exchange supply suggest some investors are positioning for a longer-term recovery. But short-term price action still looks fragile below $1.10.

Traders watching this week should treat both the $1 support and the SEC meeting as the two levels that matter most, one technical, one regulatory.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and prices can move sharply in either direction. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.